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2026 · Week 2

Thursday, October 1, 2026 · picks stored before kickoff, graded after the final · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET
This week W1W2W3W4W5
10–6
Week 2 record · 62%
11–5
Market pick, same games
12.2
avg. margin error (pts)
SF 78%
best call (highest-confidence hit)
TB 74%
toughest miss (most confident)

Week 2 picks

10 of 16 correct · Market pick 11 of 16
Kickoff (ET)
Matchup
Win probability
Pick
Projected
Market pick
Why this pick
Thu 8:15 PM
DET @ BUF
Lions at BillsJared Goff vs Josh Allen
Thu 8:15 PM · proj 24–28 · BUF −4.4 · O/U 51.8
Final DET 31 – BUF 41✓
68%
BUF
24–28
BUF −4.4 · O/U 51.8
BUF −5.5 same
BUF at home (+7); BUF is the better team (+4); BUF in better form (+3)
Sun 1:00 PM
CAR @ ATL
Panthers at FalconsBryce Young vs Tua Tagovailoa
Sun 1:00 PM · proj 22–25 · ATL −3.3 · O/U 46.5
Final CAR 34 – ATL 3✕
53%
ATL
22–25
ATL −3.3 · O/U 46.5
CAR −2.5 we differ
ATL at home (+7); ATL is the better team (+5); ATL in better form (+3)
Sun 1:00 PM
CIN @ HOU
Bengals at TexansJoe Burrow vs C.J. Stroud
Sun 1:00 PM · proj 23–24 · HOU −0.6 · O/U 47.2
Final CIN 20 – HOU 6✕
54%
HOU
23–24
HOU −0.6 · O/U 47.2
HOU −3 same
HOU is the better team (+9); HOU at home (+8); HOU missing 3 starters (-4)
Sun 1:00 PM
CLE @ TB
Browns at BuccaneersDeshaun Watson vs Baker Mayfield
Sun 1:00 PM · proj 18–26 · TB −7.9 · O/U 43.2
Final CLE 23 – TB 19✕
74%
TB
18–26
TB −7.9 · O/U 43.2
TB −8.5 same
TB at home (+7); TB has the QB edge (+6); TB is the better team (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
GB @ NYJ
Packers at JetsJordan Love vs Geno Smith
Sun 1:00 PM · proj 24–23 · GB −1.6 · O/U 47.3
Final GB 20 – NYJ 17✓
63%
GB
24–23
GB −1.6 · O/U 47.3
GB −3.5 same
GB is the better team (+11); GB has the QB edge (+10); NYJ at home (-7)
Sun 1:00 PM
MIN @ CHI
Vikings at BearsCarson Wentz vs Caleb Williams
Sun 1:00 PM · proj 21–24 · CHI −3.3 · O/U 45.2
Final MIN 9 – CHI 3✕
61%
CHI
21–24
CHI −3.3 · O/U 45.2
CHI −4.5 same
CHI at home (+8); CHI has the QB edge (+3); MIN has the more efficient offense (-3)
Sun 1:00 PM
NO @ BAL
Saints at RavensTyler Shough vs Lamar Jackson
Sun 1:00 PM · proj 19–28 · BAL −8.9 · O/U 46.8
Final NO 24 – BAL 17✕
73%
BAL
19–28
BAL −8.9 · O/U 46.8
BAL −8.5 same
BAL is the better team (+9); BAL at home (+6); BAL has the QB edge (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
PHI @ TEN
Eagles at TitansJalen Hurts vs Cam Ward
Sun 1:00 PM · proj 25–18 · PHI −7.0 · O/U 43.3
Final PHI 24 – TEN 20✓
71%
PHI
25–18
PHI −7.0 · O/U 43.3
PHI −7 same
PHI is the better team (+15); PHI has the QB edge (+10); TEN at home (-6)
Sun 1:00 PM
PIT @ NE
Steelers at PatriotsAaron Rodgers vs Drake Maye
Sun 1:00 PM · proj 20–25 · NE −4.7 · O/U 45.1
Final PIT 3 – NE 20✓
66%
NE
20–25
NE −4.7 · O/U 45.1
NE −4.5 same
NE at home (+7); NE is the better team (+6); NE has the QB edge (+5)
Sun 4:05 PM
JAX @ DEN
Jaguars at BroncosTrevor Lawrence vs Bo Nix
Sun 4:05 PM · proj 22–23 · DEN −0.5 · O/U 45.5
Final JAX 13 – DEN 20✓
51%
DEN
22–23
DEN −0.5 · O/U 45.5
DEN −2.5 same
DEN in better form (+9); JAX at home (-8); DEN has the QB edge (+2)
Sun 4:05 PM
LV @ LAC
Raiders at ChargersKirk Cousins vs Justin Herbert
Sun 4:05 PM · proj 20–24 · LAC −3.6 · O/U 44.4
Final LV 26 – LAC 14✕
64%
LAC
20–24
LAC −3.6 · O/U 44.4
LAC −6.5 same
LAC is the better team (+9); LAC at home (+7); LV has the schedule edge (-2)
Sun 4:25 PM
MIA @ SF
Dolphins at 49ersMalik Willis vs Brock Purdy
Sun 4:25 PM · proj 18–30 · SF −11.4 · O/U 48.2
Final MIA 13 – SF 35✓
78%
SF
18–30
SF −11.4 · O/U 48.2
SF −12.5 same
SF is the better team (+9); SF at home (+5); SF in better form (+4)
Sun 4:25 PM
SEA @ ARI
Seahawks at CardinalsDrew Lock vs Jacoby Brissett
Sun 4:25 PM · proj 24–19 · SEA −4.6 · O/U 42.8
Final SEA 31 – ARI 7✓
69%
SEA
24–19
SEA −4.6 · O/U 42.8
SEA −3.5 same
SEA is the better team (+18); SEA in better form (+10); ARI at home (-7)
Sun 4:25 PM
WAS @ DAL
Commanders at CowboysJayden Daniels vs Dak Prescott
Sun 4:25 PM · proj 25–27 · DAL −1.8 · O/U 51.9
Final WAS 20 – DAL 37✓
56%
DAL
25–27
DAL −1.8 · O/U 51.9
DAL −3.5 same
DAL at home (+8); DAL has the QB edge (+5); WAS is the better team (-3)
Sun 8:20 PM
IND @ KC
Colts at ChiefsDaniel Jones vs Patrick Mahomes
Sun 8:20 PM · proj 20–27 · KC −6.6 · O/U 46.9
Final IND 30 – KC 33✓
66%
KC
20–27
KC −6.6 · O/U 46.9
KC −6 same
KC at home (+7); KC is the better team (+5); KC in better form (+5)
Mon 8:15 PM
NYG @ LA
Giants at RamsJaxson Dart vs Matthew Stafford
Mon 8:15 PM · proj 23–29 · LA −5.5 · O/U 51.8
Final NYG 6 – LA 28✓
68%
LA
23–29
LA −5.5 · O/U 51.8
LA −6.5 same
LA is the better team (+12); LA at home (+6); LA has the QB edge (+4)

Notable in Week 2

What stood out, measured against every game since 2009. Arithmetic on final scores and market's final price, nothing else; a fact makes the list only if it is rare (a team's best or worst in years, a game in the top 1% of all games, or a week in the top or bottom ten of nearly 300).

What moved

Every run re-predicts the week and the last one before kickoff is the pick of record. This lists any game whose probability moved a point or more between pre-kickoff runs, or whose pick flipped, and names the biggest reason. Runs after kickoff never count and are not shown. 54 runs so far this week · latest Mon 8:03 PM ET.
RunGamePickBeforeAfterMoveBiggest reason
Mon 8:03 PM ET NYG @ LA LA 66% LA 68% LA +2.1 toward LA analyst adjustment +2.0
Mon 7:02 PM ET NYG @ LA LA 68% LA 66% LA -2.1 toward NYG analyst adjustment -2.0
Sun 3:03 PM ET JAX @ DEN DEN 53% DEN 51% DEN -2.0 toward JAX analyst adjustment -2.0
Sun 11:47 AM ET CLE @ TB TB 72% TB 74% TB +2.1 toward TB analyst adjustment +2.2
Sun 7:03 AM ET NYG @ LA LA 68% LA 67% LA -1.1 toward NYG Injuries -1.2
Sun 7:03 AM ET PIT @ NE NE 68% NE 66% NE -1.8 toward PIT Injuries -1.8
Sat 7:02 PM ET SEA @ ARI SEA 30% ARI 32% ARI +1.9 toward ARI analyst adjustment +1.9
Sat 7:02 PM ET NYG @ LA LA 70% LA 68% LA -2.0 toward NYG analyst adjustment -1.9
Sat 7:03 AM ET SEA @ ARI SEA 29% ARI 30% ARI +1.1 toward ARI Injuries +1.2
Sat 7:03 AM ET PHI @ TEN PHI 30% TEN 29% TEN -1.1 toward PHI analyst adjustment -1.9
Sat 7:03 AM ET CLE @ TB TB 70% TB 72% TB +1.2 toward TB Injuries +1.2
Sat 7:03 AM ET MIN @ CHI CHI 63% CHI 61% CHI -1.8 toward MIN analyst adjustment -1.9
Sat 7:03 AM ET NYG @ LA LA 68% LA 70% LA +2.0 toward LA analyst adjustment +1.9
Sat 7:03 AM ET LV @ LAC LAC 67% LAC 64% LAC -2.1 toward LV analyst adjustment -3.6
Sat 7:03 AM ET CIN @ HOU HOU 56% HOU 54% HOU -2.3 toward CIN analyst adjustment +2.0
Sat 7:03 AM ET NO @ BAL BAL 76% BAL 73% BAL -2.4 toward NO analyst adjustment +1.3
Sat 7:03 AM ET IND @ KC KC 69% KC 66% KC -3.2 toward IND Injuries -3.3
Sat 7:03 AM ET MIA @ SF SF 75% SF 78% SF +3.4 toward SF analyst adjustment +1.9
Fri 7:02 PM ET GB @ NYJ GB 36% NYJ 38% NYJ +1.9 toward NYJ analyst adjustment +1.9
Fri 7:02 PM ET LV @ LAC LAC 65% LAC 67% LAC +1.9 toward LAC analyst adjustment +1.9
Fri 7:02 PM ET CIN @ HOU HOU 58% HOU 56% HOU -2.0 toward CIN analyst adjustment -2.0
Fri 7:02 PM ET PHI @ TEN PHI 28% TEN 30% TEN +2.0 toward TEN analyst adjustment +1.9
Fri 7:02 PM ET MIN @ CHI CHI 66% CHI 63% CHI -3.7 toward MIN analyst adjustment -0.5
Fri 3:03 PM ET IND @ KC KC 67% KC 69% KC +2.0 toward KC analyst adjustment +1.9