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Jaguars at Broncos
DEN
the pick · 51% to win (model 50%, analyst +1.0)
22–23
projected · DEN by 0.5 · total 45.5
DEN −2.5
final market margin · agrees
13–20
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U –
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +6.5 · total error -12.5
Why Denver Broncos
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Trevor Lawrence vs Bo Nix at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 72.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
DEN in better form (+9); JAX at home (-8); DEN has the QB edge (+2)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | DEN win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 48% | 48% | +0.0 | JAX | -0.5 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 48% | 48% | +0.0 | JAX | -0.5 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 48% | 48% | +0.0 | JAX | -0.5 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 48% | 48% | +0.0 | JAX | -0.5 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 48% | 48% | +0.0 | JAX | -0.5 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 44% | 44% | +0.0 | JAX | -2.5 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | JAX | -1.5 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | JAX | -1.5 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | JAX | -1.5 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 51% | 50% | +1.1 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 51% | 50% | +1.1 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 53% | 50% | +3.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 51% | 50% | +1.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (DEN) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 58% (-4.5) | 56% (+3.5) | 43 |
| Kalshi | 56% | 56% | 33 |
| DraftKings | 57% (+2.5) | 57% (+2.5) | 21 |
| nflverse price | 58% (+3.0) | 57% (+2.5) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 51% | 51% (+0.5) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back ruled out/inactive for Week 2 game vs Jacksonville | DEN | RJ Harvey | 0.99 | -2.0 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR Wednesday | JAX | B.J. Green | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.019 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Sean Payton called Week 1 loss to Chiefs a 'slap in the face'; Bo Nix called it a 'nasty wakeup call' | DEN | 0.70 | +1.1 | helped -0.010 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Deshaun Watson started vs. Browns (first start in almost 2 years, not Trevor Lawrence) | JAX | Deshaun Watson | 0.90 | +5.4 | helped -0.051 |
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Todd Monken named head coach (debut vs. Browns Week 1) | JAX | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.017 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back unlikely to play vs. Jaguars; hamstring issue | DEN | R.J. Harvey | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver held out of practice Thursday with foot injury; status unclear for Sunday | DEN | Marvin Mims Jr. | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.013 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Special teams roster disruption: B.J. Green placed on IR, Jack Kiser signed to 53-man roster Wednesday | JAX | 0.75 | +0.4 | helped -0.004 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for other Bo Nix suffered a season-ending foot injury in 2025 AFC Championship; coaches contacted Drew Brees about joining for that game | DEN | 0.30 | -0.1 | hurt +0.002 |
Quick answers
Who won Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos?
The Denver Broncos beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-13 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos?
niftiNFL picks the Denver Broncos, 51% to win, with a projected score of Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Denver Broncos 23. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Denver Broncos; the final was Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20.