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Lions at Bills
BUF
the pick · 68% to win (model 66%, analyst +1.5)
24–28
projected · BUF by 4.4 · total 51.8
BUF −5.5
final market margin · agrees
31–41
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +5.6 · total error +20.2
Why Buffalo Bills
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Jared Goff vs Josh Allen at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy.
BUF at home (+7); BUF is the better team (+4); BUF in better form (+3)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | BUF win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:17 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sat 12:49 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.8 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.7 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.7 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +3.7 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.2 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.2 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.1 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.1 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.1 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.1 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.1 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.1 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.1 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.1 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 69% | 65% | +4.0 | BUF | +4.7 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 68% | 66% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.5 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 68% | 66% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.5 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 68% | 66% | +1.9 | BUF | +4.5 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | BUF | +4.0 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 68% | 66% | +1.5 | BUF | +4.4 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (BUF) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 60% (-14.5) | 70% (+5.5) | 32 |
| Kalshi | 64% | 70% | 20 |
| DraftKings | 66% (+5.5) | 66% (+5.5) | 8 |
| nflverse price | 59% (+3.0) | 68% (+5.5) | 29 |
| niftiNFL | 65% | 68% (+4.4) | 32 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report DL ruled out after injuring hip in pregame | BUF | Ed Oliver | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB had back surgery, will miss significant time (estimated 12 weeks) | DET | Isiah Pacheco | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| coaching change Joe Brady hired as head coach after Sean McDermott fired | BUF | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.010 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report LG Christian Mahogany out for Thursday vs. Bills | DET | Christian Mahogany | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report RT Blake Miller out for Thursday vs. Bills | DET | Blake Miller | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting LG carted off with knee injury in Week 1 vs Saints | DET | Christian Mahogany | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.011 |
| coaching change declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in Joe Brady hired as new head coach after Bills fired Sean McDermott following playoff loss | BUF | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.010 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other New stadium grass field had major deformations; replacement field in use for first regular-season game | BUF | 0.65 | -0.3 | hurt +0.002 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for other DL missed Tuesday practice with illness; status unclear for Thursday | BUF | T.J. Sanders | 0.60 | -0.3 | hurt +0.002 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.50 below floor for other Rookie RT has new knee injury but expressed optimism about playing vs. Bills | DET | Blake Miller | 0.50 | +0.2 | helped -0.002 |
Quick answers
Who won Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills?
The Buffalo Bills beat the Detroit Lions 41-31 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills?
niftiNFL picks the Buffalo Bills, 68% to win, with a projected score of Detroit Lions 24, Buffalo Bills 28. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Buffalo Bills; the final was Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41.