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Giants at Rams
LA
the pick · 68% to win (model 70%, analyst -2.0)
23–29
projected · LA by 5.5 · total 51.8
LA −6.5
final market margin · agrees
6–28
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +16.5 · total error -17.8
Why Los Angeles Rams
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Jaxson Dart vs Matthew Stafford at quarterback.
LA is the better team (+12); LA at home (+6); LA has the QB edge (+4)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | LA win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 71% | 71% | +0.0 | LA | +6.3 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | LA | +5.8 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 68% | 71% | -2.6 | LA | +5.6 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 68% | 71% | -2.6 | LA | +5.6 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 68% | 71% | -2.6 | LA | +5.6 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 68% | 71% | -2.6 | LA | +5.6 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 68% | 71% | -2.6 | LA | +5.6 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 70% | 71% | -0.8 | LA | +6.1 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 70% | 71% | -0.8 | LA | +6.1 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 70% | 71% | -0.8 | LA | +6.1 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 68% | 71% | -2.6 | LA | +5.6 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 67% | 70% | -2.6 | LA | +5.2 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 67% | 70% | -2.6 | LA | +5.2 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 67% | 70% | -2.6 | LA | +5.2 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 67% | 70% | -2.6 | LA | +5.2 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 67% | 70% | -2.6 | LA | +5.2 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 67% | 70% | -2.6 | LA | +5.2 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 67% | 70% | -2.6 | LA | +5.2 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 68% | 70% | -2.6 | LA | +5.4 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 68% | 70% | -2.6 | LA | +5.4 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 68% | 70% | -2.6 | LA | +5.4 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 68% | 70% | -2.0 | LA | +5.5 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 66% | 70% | -4.0 | LA | +5.0 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 68% | 70% | -2.0 | LA | +5.5 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (LA) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 76% (+7.5) | 72% (+6.5) | 43 |
| Kalshi | 76% | 72% | 42 |
| DraftKings | 70% (+7.0) | 69% (+6.5) | 29 |
| nflverse price | 74% (+7.0) | 72% (+6.5) | 43 |
| niftiNFL | 71% | 68% (+5.5) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report CB ruled out (inactive) for Week 2 vs. Rams | NYG | Deonte Banks | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR ruled out (inactive) with hip injury for Week 2 vs. Giants | LA | Puka Nacua | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback Paulson Adebo placed on IR | NYG | Paulson Adebo | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out with hamstring injury | LA | Kam Kinchels | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive end ruled out or unavailable for Rams-Giants game | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.008 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption Rams played in Australia last week; short turnaround for Monday night game | LA | 0.75 | -0.8 | hurt +0.005 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rams DL undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery, headed to IR after Week 1 | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Sean McVay says TBD if Aaron Donald plays vs. Giants in Week 2; did not travel to Australia for Week 1 | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Returning from retirement; Sean McVay hopeful he will play Week 2 vs Giants | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.85 | +1.3 | helped -0.007 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Status TBD for Week 2 vs Giants; did not travel to Australia for Week 1 | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.002 |
Quick answers
Who won New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams?
The Los Angeles Rams beat the New York Giants 28-6 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams?
niftiNFL picks the Los Angeles Rams, 68% to win, with a projected score of New York Giants 23, Los Angeles Rams 29. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Los Angeles Rams; the final was New York Giants 6, Los Angeles Rams 28.