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2026 · Week 5

Thursday, October 1, 2026 · picks stored before kickoff, graded after the final · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET
This week W1W2W3W4W5
0–0
Week 5 record
1
not yet final

Week 5 picks

0 of 0 correct · 1 not yet final
Kickoff (ET)
Matchup
Win probability
Pick
Projected
Market pick
Why this pick
Thu 8:15 PM
TB @ DAL
Buccaneers at CowboysJalon Daniels vs Dak Prescott
Thu 8:15 PM · proj 22–28 · DAL −5.6 · O/U 50.2
72%
DAL
22–28
DAL −5.6 · O/U 50.2
DAL −9.5 same
DAL has the QB edge (+12); DAL at home (+6); TB has the more efficient offense (-2)

What moved

Every run re-predicts the week and the last one before kickoff is the pick of record. This lists any game whose probability moved a point or more between pre-kickoff runs, or whose pick flipped, and names the biggest reason. Runs after kickoff never count and are not shown. 2 runs so far this week · latest Thu 11:02 AM ET.
Nothing moved in the latest run: every pick and probability held.