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2026 · Week 1
9–5
Week 1 record · 64%
11–3
Market pick, same games
11.9
avg. margin error (pts)
JAX 81%
best call (highest-confidence hit)
LAC 75%
toughest miss (most confident)
Week 1 picks
9 of 14 correct · Market pick 11 of 14
Kickoff (ET)
Matchup
Win probability
Pick
Projected
Market pick
Why this pick
Sun 1:00 PM
ATL @ PIT
Falcons at SteelersCooper Rush vs Aaron Rodgers
Final ATL 13 – PIT 20✓
65%
PIT
19–24
PIT −5.0 · O/U 43.6
PIT −6.5 same
PIT at home (+7); PIT has the QB edge (+7); ATL in better form (-2)
Sun 1:00 PM
BAL @ IND
Ravens at ColtsLamar Jackson vs Daniel Jones
Final BAL 41 – IND 23✓
61%
BAL
25–23
BAL −1.8 · O/U 47.5
BAL −3 same
BAL has the QB edge (+11); IND at home (-8); BAL is the better team (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
BUF @ HOU
Bills at TexansJosh Allen vs C.J. Stroud
Final BUF 36 – HOU 31✕
51%
HOU
23–24
HOU −0.5 · O/U 47.0
BUF −1.5 we differ
HOU at home (+8); BUF has the QB edge (-7); BUF is the better team (-1)
Sun 1:00 PM
CHI @ CAR
Bears at PanthersCaleb Williams vs Bryce Young
Final CHI 59 – CAR 37✓
57%
CHI
24–22
CHI −1.8 · O/U 45.5
CHI −3 same
CAR at home (-8); CHI is the better team (+8); CHI has the QB edge (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
CLE @ JAX
Browns at JaguarsDeshaun Watson vs Trevor Lawrence
Final CLE 10 – JAX 34✓
81%
JAX
16–26
JAX −9.6 · O/U 42.2
JAX −8.5 same
JAX is the better team (+8); JAX has the QB edge (+6); JAX in better form (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
NO @ DET
Saints at LionsTyler Shough vs Jared Goff
Final NO 30 – DET 31✓
76%
DET
20–29
DET −8.8 · O/U 48.3
DET −7 same
DET is the better team (+8); DET has the QB edge (+7); DET at home (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ @ TEN
Jets at TitansGeno Smith vs Cam Ward
Final NYJ 23 – TEN 10✕
53%
TEN
21–22
TEN −1.1 · O/U 42.6
TEN −1.5 same
NYJ has the QB edge (-8); TEN at home (+8); TEN in better form (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
TB @ CIN
Buccaneers at BengalsBaker Mayfield vs Joe Burrow
Final TB 27 – CIN 33✓
65%
CIN
23–27
CIN −4.9 · O/U 50.0
CIN −3.5 same
CIN at home (+7); CIN has the QB edge (+3); CIN in better form (+3)
Sun 4:25 PM
ARI @ LAC
Cardinals at ChargersJacoby Brissett vs Justin Herbert
Final ARI 26 – LAC 14✕
75%
LAC
18–27
LAC −8.4 · O/U 45.4
LAC −8.5 same
LAC is the better team (+8); LAC at home (+6); LAC in better form (+4)
Sun 4:25 PM
GB @ MIN
Packers at VikingsJordan Love vs Kyler Murray
Final GB 22 – MIN 39✓
55%
MIN
22–25
MIN −2.3 · O/U 47.1
MIN −1.5 same
GB has the QB edge (-15); MIN at home (+8); MIN in better form (+6)
Sun 4:25 PM
MIA @ LV
Dolphins at RaidersMalik Willis vs Kirk Cousins
Final MIA 13 – LV 27✕
57%
MIA
24–22
MIA −2.0 · O/U 46.2
LV −3 we differ
LV at home (-8); MIA is the better team (+8); MIA has the QB edge (+6)
Sun 4:25 PM
WAS @ PHI
Commanders at EaglesJayden Daniels vs Jalen Hurts
Final WAS 22 – PHI 24✓
70%
PHI
20–26
PHI −6.5 · O/U 46.4
PHI −6 same
PHI at home (+7); PHI is the better team (+6); PHI has the QB edge (+5)
Sun 8:20 PM
DAL @ NYG
Cowboys at GiantsDak Prescott vs Jaxson Dart
Final DAL 20 – NYG 28✓
55%
NYG
25–26
NYG −1.1 · O/U 50.4
DAL −3 we differ
NYG at home (+8); NYG in better form (+5); DAL has the QB edge (-4)
Mon 8:15 PM
DEN @ KC
Broncos at ChiefsBo Nix vs Patrick Mahomes
Final DEN 10 – KC 31✕
62%
DEN
25–22
DEN −2.3 · O/U 47.3
KC −2.5 we differ
DEN is the better team (+9); KC at home (-8); DEN in better form (+4)
Notable in Week 1
What stood out, measured against every game since 2009. Arithmetic on final scores and market's final price, nothing else; a fact makes the list only if it is rare (a team's best or worst in years, a game in the top 1% of all games, or a week in the top or bottom ten of nearly 300).
- Carolina Panthers: 59 points allowed against Chicago Bears, the team's most points allowed in any game in our data (since 2009, 18 seasons).
- Chicago Bears: 59 points against Carolina Panthers, the team's most points in any game in our data (since 2009, 18 seasons).
- Chicago Bears 59, Carolina Panthers 37: 96 combined points, the 4th-highest of 4,630 games since 2009.
Above it: 105: Kansas City Chiefs 51, Los Angeles Rams 54 (Week 11, 2018) · 101: New York Giants 49, New Orleans Saints 52 (Week 8, 2015) · 99: Denver Broncos 51, Dallas Cowboys 48 (Week 5, 2013)
- Jacksonville Jaguars beat Cleveland Browns for the first time since Week 11, 2017 (3 straight losses in between).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2 return touchdowns in one game.
- Buffalo Bills beat Houston Texans for the first time since Week 4, 2021 (2 straight losses in between).
- Las Vegas Raiders beat Miami Dolphins for the first time since Week 3, 2021 (2 straight losses in between).
- Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints): 182 receiving yards, a career high in 55 games since 2009 (previous best 148).
- Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills): 130 receiving yards, a career high in 48 games since 2009 (previous best 108).
- Baltimore Ravens beat Indianapolis Colts for the first time since Week 5, 2021.
- Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens): 150 receiving yards, a career high in 52 games since 2009 (previous best 143).
- Kenneth Walker III (Kansas City Chiefs): 173 rushing yards, a career high in 62 games since 2009 (previous best 167).
What moved
Every run re-predicts the week and the last one before kickoff is the pick of record. This lists any game whose probability moved a point or more between pre-kickoff runs, or whose pick flipped, and names the biggest reason. Runs after kickoff never count and are not shown. 18 runs so far this week · latest Mon 8:02 PM ET.
Nothing moved in the latest run: every pick and probability held. Earlier movement is listed below.
| Run | Game | Pick | Before | After | Move | Biggest reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | DEN @ KC | DEN | 40% KC | 38% KC | -1.7 toward DEN | analyst adjustment -1.7 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | MIA @ LV | MIA | 41% LV | 43% LV | +1.9 toward LV | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | GB @ MIN | MIN | 53% MIN | 55% MIN | +1.9 toward MIN | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | NO @ DET | DET | 74% DET | 76% DET | +1.9 toward DET | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | ATL @ PIT | PIT | 67% PIT | 65% PIT | -1.9 toward ATL | analyst adjustment -1.9 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | BAL @ IND | BAL | 37% IND | 39% IND | +1.9 toward IND | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | WAS @ PHI | PHI | 68% PHI | 70% PHI | +1.9 toward PHI | analyst adjustment +1.9 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | DEN @ KC | DEN | 38% KC | 40% KC | +2.0 toward KC | analyst adjustment +3.4 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | WAS @ PHI | PHI | 70% PHI | 68% PHI | -1.9 toward WAS | analyst adjustment -1.9 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | DEN @ KC | DEN | 42% KC | 38% KC | -3.7 toward DEN | analyst adjustment -3.8 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | BAL @ IND | BAL | 39% IND | 37% IND | -1.9 toward BAL | analyst adjustment -1.9 |