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Buccaneers at Bengals
CIN
the pick · 65% to win
23–27
projected · CIN by 4.9 · total 50.0
CIN −3.5
final market margin · agrees
27–33
final · ✓
ATS ✓ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +1.1 · total error +10.0
Why Cincinnati Bengals
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Baker Mayfield vs Joe Burrow at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 83.0°F, wind 2.0 mph, Sunny.
CIN at home (+7); CIN has the QB edge (+3); CIN in better form (+3)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | CIN win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:17 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | CIN | +4.9 |
| Sat 12:49 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | CIN | +4.9 |
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | CIN | +4.9 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | CIN | +4.9 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | CIN | +4.9 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | CIN | +4.9 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | CIN | +4.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | CIN | +4.9 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (CIN) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 64% (+3.5) | 64% (+3.5) | 6 |
| DraftKings | 60% (+3.5) | 60% (+3.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 64% (+3.5) | 64% (+3.5) | 6 |
| niftiNFL | 65% | 65% (+4.9) | 8 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
No claims: nothing in the news beyond what the model already counts.
Quick answers
Who won Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals?
The Cincinnati Bengals beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33-27 in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals?
niftiNFL picks the Cincinnati Bengals, 65% to win, with a projected score of Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, Cincinnati Bengals 27. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Cincinnati Bengals; the final was Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33.