NFL
More
Packers at Vikings
MIN
the pick · 55% to win (model 53%, analyst +1.9)
22–25
projected · MIN by 2.3 · total 47.1
MIN −1.5
final market margin · agrees
22–39
final · ✓
ATS ✓ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +14.7 · total error +13.9
Why Minnesota Vikings
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Jordan Love vs Kyler Murray at quarterback.
GB has the QB edge (-15); MIN at home (+8); MIN in better form (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | MIN win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:17 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | MIN | +1.8 |
| Sat 12:49 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | MIN | +1.8 |
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | MIN | +1.8 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | MIN | +1.8 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | MIN | +1.8 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | MIN | +1.8 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | MIN | +1.8 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | MIN | +1.8 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | MIN | +1.8 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 55% | 53% | +1.9 | MIN | +2.3 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (MIN) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 55% (+1.5) | 56% (+1.5) | 8 |
| DraftKings | 54% (+1.5) | 54% (+1.5) | 8 |
| nflverse price | 53% (+1.5) | 53% (+1.5) | 8 |
| niftiNFL | 53% | 55% (+2.3) | 10 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Guard inactive for Packers-Vikings game | GB | Aaron Banks | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: after kickoff (excluded) Kyler Murray ruled out with concussion in first quarter; Wentz entered game | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.95 | -5.7 | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: after kickoff (excluded) Kyler Murray ruled out with concussion after first-quarter hit; Carson Wentz entered game | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.95 | -5.7 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Running back pleaded no contest to multiple misdemeanor charges; video sealed by judge, potential career complication | GB | Josh Jacobs | 0.65 | +0.3 | helped -0.003 |
Quick answers
Who won Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings?
The Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers 39-22 in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings?
niftiNFL picks the Minnesota Vikings, 55% to win, with a projected score of Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 25. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Minnesota Vikings; the final was Green Bay Packers 22, Minnesota Vikings 39.