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Broncos at Chiefs
DEN
the pick · 62% to win (model 59%, analyst +2.5)
25–22
projected · DEN by 2.3 · total 47.3
KC −2.5
final market margin · we differ
10–31
final · ✕
ATS ✕ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +23.3 · total error -6.3
Why Denver Broncos
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Bo Nix vs Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 88.0°F, wind 13.0 mph, Clear.
DEN is the better team (+9); KC at home (-8); DEN in better form (+4)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | KC win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:17 AM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | DEN | -1.2 |
| Sat 12:49 PM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | DEN | -1.2 |
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | DEN | -1.2 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | DEN | -1.2 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 38% | 42% | -3.8 | DEN | -2.3 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 38% | 42% | -3.8 | DEN | -2.3 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.4 | DEN | -1.7 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.4 | DEN | -1.7 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | DEN | -1.8 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 38% | 41% | -2.5 | DEN | -2.3 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 38% | 41% | -2.5 | DEN | -2.3 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 38% | 41% | -2.5 | DEN | -2.3 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 38% | 41% | -2.5 | DEN | -2.3 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 38% | 41% | -2.5 | DEN | -2.3 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 38% | 41% | -2.5 | DEN | -2.3 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 38% | 41% | -2.5 | DEN | -2.3 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 38% | 41% | -2.5 | DEN | -2.3 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 38% | 41% | -2.5 | DEN | -2.3 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (KC) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 56% (+2.5) | 55% (+2.5) | 18 |
| Kalshi | 56% | 54% | 6 |
| DraftKings | 57% (+2.5) | 57% (+2.5) | 15 |
| nflverse price | 56% (+2.5) | 54% (+2.5) | 18 |
| niftiNFL | 42% | 38% (-2.3) | 18 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Undrafted rookie starting at LT due to Josh Simmons ruled out; inexperienced blindside protection for Mahomes | KC | Kahlil Benson | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.020 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Undrafted rookie starting at LT for injured Josh Simmons; significant downgrade in pass protection | KC | Kahlil Benson | 0.85 | -0.4 | hurt +0.005 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Rookie LT Kahlil Benson (undrafted) starting at left tackle for first time in NFL | KC | 0.85 | -0.4 | hurt +0.005 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Chiefs' opener Monday night | KC | Chamarri Conner | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Left tackle ruled out for Monday night; undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson to start | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key_player_out Defensive lineman listed as limited with calf injury on Friday injury report | KC | Chris Jones | 0.30 | -0.6 | hurt +0.007 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in Returning from major knee injury sustained in December; first game back after extended absence | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 0.80 | -0.4 | hurt +0.005 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Patrick Mahomes returning from major knee injury (out since December); first game back | KC | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.004 |
Quick answers
Who won Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs?
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos 31-10 in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs?
niftiNFL picks the Denver Broncos, 62% to win, with a projected score of Denver Broncos 25, Kansas City Chiefs 22. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Denver Broncos; the final was Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31.