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Cardinals at Chargers
LAC
the pick · 75% to win
18–27
projected · LAC by 8.4 · total 45.4
LAC −8.5
final market margin · agrees
26–14
final · ✕
ATS ✓ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -20.4 · total error -5.4
Why Los Angeles Chargers
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Jacoby Brissett vs Justin Herbert at quarterback.
LAC is the better team (+8); LAC at home (+6); LAC in better form (+4)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | LAC win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:17 AM ET | 75% | 75% | +0.0 | LAC | +8.4 |
| Sat 12:49 PM ET | 75% | 75% | +0.0 | LAC | +8.4 |
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 75% | 75% | +0.0 | LAC | +8.4 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 75% | 75% | +0.0 | LAC | +8.4 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 75% | 75% | +0.0 | LAC | +8.4 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 75% | 75% | +0.0 | LAC | +8.4 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 75% | 75% | +0.0 | LAC | +8.4 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 75% | 75% | +0.0 | LAC | +8.4 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 75% | 75% | +0.0 | LAC | +8.4 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 75% | 75% | +0.0 | LAC | +8.4 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (LAC) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 80% (+10.5) | 80% (+10.5) | 8 |
| DraftKings | 76% (+9.5) | 74% (+8.5) | 8 |
| nflverse price | 80% (+9.5) | 79% (+8.5) | 8 |
| niftiNFL | 75% | 75% (+8.4) | 10 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: after kickoff (excluded) WR exited Week 1 game after taking big hit over the middle; injury status unclear but game exit reported | LAC | Ladd McConkey | 0.60 | -1.2 | pending |
Quick answers
Who won Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers?
The Arizona Cardinals beat the Los Angeles Chargers 26-14 in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers?
niftiNFL picks the Los Angeles Chargers, 75% to win, with a projected score of Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Chargers 27. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Los Angeles Chargers; the final was Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14.