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Commanders at Eagles
PHI
the pick · 70% to win
20–26
projected · PHI by 6.5 · total 46.4
PHI −6
final market margin · agrees
22–24
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -4.5 · total error -0.4
Why Philadelphia Eagles
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Jayden Daniels vs Jalen Hurts at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 81.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
PHI at home (+7); PHI is the better team (+6); PHI has the QB edge (+5)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | PHI win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:17 AM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | PHI | +6.5 |
| Sat 12:49 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | PHI | +6.5 |
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | PHI | +6.5 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | PHI | +6.5 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 68% | 70% | -1.9 | PHI | +6.0 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 68% | 70% | -1.9 | PHI | +6.0 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | PHI | +6.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | PHI | +6.5 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | PHI | +6.5 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | PHI | +6.5 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (PHI) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 68% (+4.5) | 70% (+5.5) | 8 |
| DraftKings | 67% (+6.0) | 67% (+6.0) | 8 |
| nflverse price | 69% (+6.0) | 69% (+6.0) | 8 |
| niftiNFL | 70% | 70% (+6.5) | 10 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Rookie tight end placed on injured reserve; will not play Week 1 | PHI | Eli Stowers | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.012 |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching_change Eagles offensive coordinator moved to booth for first time under Nick Sirianni | PHI | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.007 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Offensive coordinator moving to booth for first time under Nick Sirianni; change in play-calling communication structure | PHI | 0.65 | -0.3 | hurt +0.002 |
Quick answers
Who won Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles?
The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Washington Commanders 24-22 in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles?
niftiNFL picks the Philadelphia Eagles, 70% to win, with a projected score of Washington Commanders 20, Philadelphia Eagles 26. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Philadelphia Eagles; the final was Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24.