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Jets at Titans
TEN
the pick · 53% to win
21–22
projected · TEN by 1.1 · total 42.6
TEN −1.5
final market margin · agrees
23–10
final · ✕
ATS ✓ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -14.1 · total error -9.6
Why Tennessee Titans
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Geno Smith vs Cam Ward at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 88.0°F, wind 0.0 mph, Sunny.
NYJ has the QB edge (-8); TEN at home (+8); TEN in better form (+5)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | TEN win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:17 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | TEN | +1.1 |
| Sat 12:49 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | TEN | +1.1 |
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | TEN | +1.1 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | TEN | +1.1 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | TEN | +1.1 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | TEN | +1.1 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | TEN | +1.1 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | TEN | +1.1 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (TEN) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 52% (+1.5) | 52% (+1.5) | 6 |
| DraftKings | 54% (+1.5) | 54% (+1.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 53% (+1.5) | 52% (+1.5) | 6 |
| niftiNFL | 53% | 53% (+1.1) | 8 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Robert Saleh hired as new head coach of Titans, making debut this week | TEN | 0.70 | -1.4 | helped -0.015 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: after kickoff (excluded) CB sustained injury in first quarter | NYJ | Jarvis Brownlee | 0.40 | +0.8 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: after kickoff (excluded) Safety exited in opening quarter, status unclear but reported as questionable to return | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.40 | +0.8 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: after kickoff (excluded) WR exited in opening quarter, status unclear but reported as questionable to return | NYJ | Omar Cooper | 0.40 | +0.8 | pending |
Quick answers
Who won New York Jets at Tennessee Titans?
The New York Jets beat the Tennessee Titans 23-10 in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win New York Jets at Tennessee Titans?
niftiNFL picks the Tennessee Titans, 53% to win, with a projected score of New York Jets 21, Tennessee Titans 22. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Tennessee Titans; the final was New York Jets 23, Tennessee Titans 10.