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Saints at Lions
DET
the pick · 76% to win (model 74%, analyst +1.9)
20–29
projected · DET by 8.8 · total 48.3
DET −7
final market margin · agrees
30–31
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -7.8 · total error +12.7
Why Detroit Lions
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Tyler Shough vs Jared Goff at quarterback.
DET is the better team (+8); DET has the QB edge (+7); DET at home (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | DET win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:17 AM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | DET | +8.3 |
| Sat 12:49 PM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | DET | +8.3 |
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | DET | +8.3 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | DET | +8.3 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | DET | +8.3 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | DET | +8.3 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | DET | +8.3 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 76% | 74% | +1.9 | DET | +8.8 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (DET) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 74% (+6.5) | 74% (+7.5) | 6 |
| DraftKings | 70% (+7.0) | 70% (+7.0) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 74% (+7.0) | 73% (+7.0) | 6 |
| niftiNFL | 74% | 76% (+8.8) | 8 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: after kickoff (excluded) RB not expected to play Sunday vs Lions | NO | Alvin Kamara | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: after kickoff (excluded) RB not expected to play Sunday | NO | Alvin Kamara | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Not expected to play Sunday | NO | Alvin Kamara | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: after kickoff (excluded) LG carted off with knee injury during game | DET | Christian Mahogany | 0.90 | -1.8 | pending |
Quick answers
Who won New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions?
The Detroit Lions beat the New Orleans Saints 31-30 in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions?
niftiNFL picks the Detroit Lions, 76% to win, with a projected score of New Orleans Saints 20, Detroit Lions 29. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Detroit Lions; the final was New Orleans Saints 30, Detroit Lions 31.