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Dolphins at Raiders
MIA
the pick · 57% to win (model 59%, analyst -1.9)
24–22
projected · MIA by 2.0 · total 46.2
LV −3
final market margin · we differ
13–27
final · ✕
ATS ✕ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +16.0 · total error -6.2
Why Miami Dolphins
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Malik Willis vs Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
LV at home (-8); MIA is the better team (+8); MIA has the QB edge (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | LV win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:17 AM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | MIA | -2.5 |
| Sat 12:49 PM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | MIA | -2.5 |
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | MIA | -2.5 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | MIA | -2.5 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | MIA | -2.5 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | MIA | -2.5 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | MIA | -2.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | MIA | -2.5 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | MIA | -2.5 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 43% | 41% | +1.9 | MIA | -2.0 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (LV) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 60% (+3.5) | 60% (+3.5) | 8 |
| DraftKings | 59% (+3.0) | 59% (+3.0) | 8 |
| nflverse price | 60% (+3.0) | 60% (+3.0) | 8 |
| niftiNFL | 41% | 43% (-2.0) | 10 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) TE elevated from practice squad for Week 1 to replace Bowers | LV | Chris Myarick | 0.85 | -0.4 | hurt +0.005 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) WR elevated from practice squad for Week 1 | LV | Cody White | 0.80 | +0.4 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: after kickoff (excluded) Wide receiver inactive for Week 1 vs Raiders | MIA | Jalen Tolbert | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: already on the injury report Head coach Klint Kubiak confirmed TE will not play Week 1 vs. Dolphins despite earlier optimism | LV | Brock Bowers | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: after kickoff (excluded) Wide receiver inactive for Week 1 game vs Raiders | MIA | Jalen Tolbert | 0.85 | +1.7 | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Off injury report, set to play Week 1 vs. Dolphins | LV | Ashton Jeanty | 0.90 | +1.4 | helped -0.016 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: after kickoff (excluded) Raiders elevated TE Chris Myarick and WR Cody White from practice squad for Week 1 | LV | 0.85 | +0.4 | pending |
Quick answers
Who won Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders?
The Las Vegas Raiders beat the Miami Dolphins 27-13 in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders?
niftiNFL picks the Miami Dolphins, 57% to win, with a projected score of Miami Dolphins 24, Las Vegas Raiders 22. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Miami Dolphins; the final was Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27.