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Bills at Texans
HOU
the pick · 51% to win
23–24
projected · HOU by 0.5 · total 47.0
BUF −1.5
final market margin · we differ
36–31
final · ✕
ATS ✕ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -5.5 · total error +20.0
Why Houston Texans
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Josh Allen vs C.J. Stroud at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 94.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Chance Showers And Thunderstorms.
HOU at home (+8); BUF has the QB edge (-7); BUF is the better team (-1)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | HOU win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:17 AM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | HOU | +0.5 |
| Sat 12:49 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | HOU | +0.5 |
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | HOU | +0.5 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | HOU | +0.5 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | HOU | +0.5 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | HOU | +0.5 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | HOU | +0.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | HOU | +0.5 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (HOU) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 48% (-1.5) | 48% (-1.5) | 6 |
| DraftKings | 46% (-1.5) | 46% (-1.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 48% (-1.5) | 50% (-1.5) | 6 |
| niftiNFL | 51% | 51% (+0.5) | 8 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other Bills' new stadium grass field had major deformations; replacement field in use for Week 1 | BUF | 0.70 | +0.3 | hurt +0.004 |
Quick answers
Who won Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans?
The Buffalo Bills beat the Houston Texans 36-31 in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans?
niftiNFL picks the Houston Texans, 51% to win, with a projected score of Buffalo Bills 23, Houston Texans 24. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Houston Texans; the final was Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31.