NFL
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Ravens at Colts
BAL
the pick · 61% to win
25–23
projected · BAL by 1.8 · total 47.5
BAL −3
final market margin · agrees
41–23
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -16.2 · total error +16.5
Why Baltimore Ravens
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Lamar Jackson vs Daniel Jones at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 81.0°F, wind 2.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
BAL has the QB edge (+11); IND at home (-8); BAL is the better team (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | IND win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:17 AM ET | 39% | 39% | +0.0 | BAL | -1.8 |
| Sat 12:49 PM ET | 39% | 39% | +0.0 | BAL | -1.8 |
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 39% | 39% | +0.0 | BAL | -1.8 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 37% | 39% | -1.9 | BAL | -2.3 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 37% | 39% | -1.9 | BAL | -2.3 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 37% | 39% | -1.9 | BAL | -2.3 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 39% | 39% | +0.0 | BAL | -1.8 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 39% | 39% | +0.0 | BAL | -1.8 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (IND) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 40% (-3.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 6 |
| DraftKings | 40% (-3.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 39% (-3.5) | 39% (-3.5) | 6 |
| niftiNFL | 39% | 39% (-1.8) | 8 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: after kickoff (excluded) Ruled out for second half with hamstring injury during game | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report LB downgraded to out for Ravens game | IND | Austin Ajiake | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.014 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Expected to be on snap count in Week 1 vs. Ravens; workload will be limited | IND | Alec Pierce | 0.75 | -0.4 | helped -0.003 |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching_change John Harbaugh left Ravens to become Giants head coach in offseason | IND | 0.00 | +0.0 | pending |
Quick answers
Who won Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts?
The Baltimore Ravens beat the Indianapolis Colts 41-23 in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts?
niftiNFL picks the Baltimore Ravens, 61% to win, with a projected score of Baltimore Ravens 25, Indianapolis Colts 23. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Baltimore Ravens; the final was Baltimore Ravens 41, Indianapolis Colts 23.