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Dolphins at 49ers
SF
the pick · 78% to win (model 78%, analyst -0.1)
18–30
projected · SF by 11.4 · total 48.2
SF −12.5
final market margin · agrees
13–35
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +10.6 · total error -0.2
Why San Francisco 49ers
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Malik Willis vs Brock Purdy at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 69.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy.
SF is the better team (+9); SF at home (+5); SF in better form (+4)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | SF win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 76% | 76% | +0.0 | SF | +9.5 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 76% | 76% | +0.0 | SF | +9.5 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.9 | SF | +9.0 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.9 | SF | +9.0 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.9 | SF | +9.0 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.9 | SF | +9.0 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.9 | SF | +9.0 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.9 | SF | +9.0 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.9 | SF | +9.0 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +10.4 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +10.4 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +10.4 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +10.4 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +10.4 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +10.4 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +10.4 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +10.4 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 77% | 77% | -0.2 | SF | +10.8 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 77% | 77% | +0.0 | SF | +10.9 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 77% | 77% | +0.0 | SF | +10.9 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 77% | 77% | +0.0 | SF | +10.9 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 77% | 77% | -0.1 | SF | +10.9 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -2.0 | SF | +10.3 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -2.0 | SF | +10.3 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -2.0 | SF | +10.3 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -2.1 | SF | +10.3 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -2.0 | SF | +10.3 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -2.0 | SF | +10.3 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -2.0 | SF | +10.3 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -2.0 | SF | +10.2 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -2.0 | SF | +10.2 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -2.0 | SF | +10.2 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -2.0 | SF | +10.2 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 78% | 78% | -0.1 | SF | +11.4 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 78% | 78% | -0.1 | SF | +11.4 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 78% | 78% | -0.1 | SF | +11.4 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 78% | 78% | -0.1 | SF | +11.4 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 78% | 78% | -0.1 | SF | +11.4 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 78% | 78% | -0.1 | SF | +11.4 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 78% | 78% | -0.1 | SF | +11.4 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 78% | 78% | -0.1 | SF | +11.4 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 78% | 78% | -0.1 | SF | +11.4 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (SF) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 86% (-4.5) | 88% (+13.5) | 44 |
| Kalshi | 90% | 88% | 34 |
| DraftKings | 84% (+13.5) | 82% (+12.5) | 22 |
| nflverse price | 86% (+12.5) | 86% (+12.5) | 40 |
| niftiNFL | 76% | 78% (+11.4) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report TE tore MCL in Week 1, out for season | SF | Jake Tonges | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety out for a few weeks with MCL sprain | MIA | Kyle Louis | 0.90 | +1.8 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') TE tore MCL in Week 1, final play of season | SF | Jake Tonges | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR placed on injured reserve, out at least 4 games (ankle injury) | SF | De'Zhaun Stribling | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR to miss at least a month with ankle injury suffered in Week 1 vs. Rams | SF | De'Zhaun Stribling | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kicker questionable with illness; team signing backup kicker to practice squad as insurance | SF | Eddy Piñeiro | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.006 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Kicker questionable with illness; team signing backup kicker to practice squad as insurance | SF | Eddy Piñeiro | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.002 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Kicker dealing with illness, 49ers may need temporary replacement | SF | Eddy Pineiro | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.002 |
Quick answers
Who won Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers?
The San Francisco 49ers beat the Miami Dolphins 35-13 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers?
niftiNFL picks the San Francisco 49ers, 78% to win, with a projected score of Miami Dolphins 18, San Francisco 49ers 30. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the San Francisco 49ers; the final was Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35.