NFL
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Vikings at Bears
CHI
the pick · 61% to win (model 53%, analyst +7.6)
21–24
projected · CHI by 3.3 · total 45.2
CHI −4.5
final market margin · agrees
9–3
final · ✕
ATS ✓ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -9.3 · total error -33.2
Why Chicago Bears
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Carson Wentz vs Caleb Williams at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 15.0 mph, Showers And Thunderstorms.
CHI at home (+8); CHI has the QB edge (+3); MIN has the more efficient offense (-3)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | CHI win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 52% | 52% | +0.0 | CHI | +0.5 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 52% | 52% | +0.0 | CHI | +0.5 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 52% | 52% | +0.0 | CHI | +0.5 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 52% | 52% | +0.0 | CHI | +0.5 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 52% | 52% | +0.0 | CHI | +0.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 52% | 52% | +0.0 | CHI | +0.5 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 52% | 52% | +0.0 | CHI | +0.5 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 52% | 52% | +0.0 | CHI | +0.5 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 58% | 52% | +5.7 | CHI | +2.1 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 58% | 52% | +5.7 | CHI | +2.1 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 59% | 52% | +7.4 | CHI | +2.6 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 64% | 57% | +7.4 | CHI | +3.9 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 64% | 57% | +7.4 | CHI | +3.9 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 64% | 57% | +7.4 | CHI | +3.9 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 66% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 66% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 67% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 66% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 66% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 66% | 57% | +10.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 63% | 54% | +9.5 | CHI | +3.9 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 61% | 54% | +7.6 | CHI | +3.3 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 61% | 54% | +7.6 | CHI | +3.3 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 61% | 54% | +7.6 | CHI | +3.3 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 61% | 54% | +7.6 | CHI | +3.3 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 61% | 54% | +7.6 | CHI | +3.3 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 61% | 54% | +7.6 | CHI | +3.3 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 61% | 54% | +7.6 | CHI | +3.3 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (CHI) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 60% (+1.5) | 66% (+4.5) | 43 |
| Kalshi | 68% | 66% | 32 |
| DraftKings | 66% (+5.5) | 63% (+4.5) | 20 |
| nflverse price | 60% (+3.0) | 66% (+4.5) | 40 |
| niftiNFL | 52% | 61% (+3.3) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Kyler Murray ruled out with concussion in Week 1; Schefter reports not likely to play Week 2 vs Bears | MIN | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.063 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with thumb injury after Week 1 | MIN | Jordan Mason | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.021 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) wind 20 mph at kickoff (Showers And Thunderstorms) | CHI | 1.00 | +0.0 | pending | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: schedule feed now names this QB Kyler Murray ruled out for Week 2 with concussion protocol; Wentz to start | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.063 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: QB is already the named starter Murray ruled out with concussion in Week 1 vs Packers; Carson Wentz entered the game | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.063 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kyler Murray remained limited in Thursday practice; Wentz set to start if Murray does not clear concussion protocol | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.75 | +4.5 | hurt +0.050 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs. Bears; remains in concussion protocol after Week 1 injury | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Concussion suffered in Week 1; unlikely to play against Bears per Schefter | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.92 | +1.8 | hurt +0.020 |
Quick answers
Who won Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears?
The Minnesota Vikings beat the Chicago Bears 9-3 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears?
niftiNFL picks the Chicago Bears, 61% to win, with a projected score of Minnesota Vikings 21, Chicago Bears 24. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Chicago Bears; the final was Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3.