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Bengals at Texans
HOU
the pick · 54% to win (model 56%, analyst -1.9)
23–24
projected · HOU by 0.6 · total 47.2
HOU −3
final market margin · agrees
20–6
final · ✕
ATS ✓ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -14.6 · total error -21.2
Why Houston Texans
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Joe Burrow vs C.J. Stroud at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 89.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
HOU is the better team (+9); HOU at home (+8); HOU missing 3 starters (-4)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | HOU win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 62% | 62% | +0.0 | HOU | +3.6 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 62% | 62% | +0.0 | HOU | +3.6 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 62% | 62% | +0.0 | HOU | +3.6 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 62% | 62% | +0.0 | HOU | +3.6 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 62% | 62% | +0.0 | HOU | +3.6 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 62% | 62% | +0.0 | HOU | +3.6 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 62% | 62% | +0.0 | HOU | +3.6 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 62% | 62% | +0.0 | HOU | +3.6 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 62% | 62% | +0.0 | HOU | +3.6 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 62% | 62% | +0.0 | HOU | +3.6 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 62% | 62% | +0.0 | HOU | +3.6 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.2 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.2 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 59% | 60% | -1.7 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 59% | 60% | -1.7 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 59% | 60% | -1.7 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | HOU | +1.7 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 56% | 60% | -3.9 | HOU | +1.1 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 54% | 56% | -1.9 | HOU | +0.6 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 54% | 56% | -1.9 | HOU | +0.6 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 54% | 56% | -1.9 | HOU | +0.6 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 54% | 56% | -1.9 | HOU | +0.6 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 54% | 56% | -1.9 | HOU | +0.6 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 54% | 56% | -1.9 | HOU | +0.6 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 54% | 56% | -1.9 | HOU | +0.6 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (HOU) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 56% (+2.5) | 57% (+2.5) | 43 |
| Kalshi | 58% | 58% | 32 |
| DraftKings | 59% (+3.0) | 59% (+3.0) | 20 |
| nflverse price | 57% (+2.5) | 57% (+3.0) | 40 |
| niftiNFL | 62% | 54% (+0.6) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with shoulder injury from Week 1 game vs Bills | HOU | Henry To'oTo'o | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 with hamstring injury suffered in Wednesday practice | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Hamstring injury sustained in Wednesday practice; limited participant status indicates game availability uncertain | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DE making season debut Sunday vs. Houston | CIN | Shemar Stewart | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.014 |
Quick answers
Who won Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans?
The Cincinnati Bengals beat the Houston Texans 20-6 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans?
niftiNFL picks the Houston Texans, 54% to win, with a projected score of Cincinnati Bengals 23, Houston Texans 24. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Houston Texans; the final was Cincinnati Bengals 20, Houston Texans 6.