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Steelers at Patriots
NE
the pick · 66% to win (model 68%, analyst -2.3)
20–25
projected · NE by 4.7 · total 45.1
NE −4.5
final market margin · agrees
3–20
final · ✓
ATS ✓ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +12.3 · total error -22.1
Why New England Patriots
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Aaron Rodgers vs Drake Maye at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 58.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Chance Light Rain.
NE at home (+7); NE is the better team (+6); NE has the QB edge (+5)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | NE win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 67% | 69% | -1.9 | NE | +5.4 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 67% | 69% | -1.9 | NE | +5.4 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 67% | 69% | -1.9 | NE | +5.4 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 67% | 69% | -1.9 | NE | +5.4 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 67% | 69% | -1.9 | NE | +5.4 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 67% | 69% | -1.9 | NE | +5.4 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 67% | 69% | -1.9 | NE | +5.4 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 67% | 69% | -1.9 | NE | +5.4 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.0 | NE | +5.9 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.0 | NE | +5.9 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.0 | NE | +5.9 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 68% | 68% | +0.0 | NE | +5.3 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 68% | 70% | -1.9 | NE | +5.3 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 68% | 70% | -1.9 | NE | +5.3 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 68% | 70% | -1.9 | NE | +5.3 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 68% | 70% | -1.9 | NE | +5.3 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 66% | 68% | -1.9 | NE | +4.8 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 66% | 68% | -2.3 | NE | +4.7 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 66% | 68% | -2.3 | NE | +4.7 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (NE) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 62% (-3.5) | 68% (+5.5) | 43 |
| Kalshi | 68% | 68% | 32 |
| DraftKings | 63% (+4.5) | 66% (+5.5) | 20 |
| nflverse price | 64% (+4.5) | 67% (+5.5) | 40 |
| niftiNFL | 67% | 66% (+4.7) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Wide receiver placed on injured reserve, expected to miss more than 4 games | NE | A.J. Brown | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.013 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) NFL banned Patriots' video board tactic of creating optical illusion for opposing kickers | NE | 0.85 | -0.4 | hurt +0.003 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out vs. Patriots with foot injury | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out with foot injury for Week 2 vs. Patriots | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out vs. Patriots with foot injury | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out with foot injury for Week 2 vs. Patriots | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out vs. Patriots with foot injury | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Cornerback ruled out for Week 2 vs. Patriots (back issue) | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') OT left Week 1 game vs. Falcons with injury | PIT | Troy Fautanu | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key_player_out CB exited Thursday practice early with medical staff; status unclear but practice participation limited due to conditioning | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.45 | +0.9 | helped -0.006 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil CB in contract dispute with team, missed Week 1, back issue reported during practice ramp-up this week | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.75 | +0.8 | helped -0.005 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in NFL banned Patriots' video board tactic to confuse opposing kickers; removes home field advantage on field goals | NE | 0.85 | -0.4 | hurt +0.003 |
Quick answers
Who won Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots?
The New England Patriots beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-3 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots?
niftiNFL picks the New England Patriots, 66% to win, with a projected score of Pittsburgh Steelers 20, New England Patriots 25. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the New England Patriots; the final was Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20.