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Commanders at Cowboys
DAL
the pick · 56% to win (model 57%, analyst -0.4)
25–27
projected · DAL by 1.8 · total 51.9
DAL −3.5
final market margin · agrees
20–37
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +15.2 · total error +5.1
Why Dallas Cowboys
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Jayden Daniels vs Dak Prescott at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 94.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Partly Sunny.
DAL at home (+8); DAL has the QB edge (+5); WAS is the better team (-3)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | DAL win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | DAL | +2.5 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | DAL | +2.5 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | DAL | +2.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | DAL | +2.5 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | DAL | +2.5 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | DAL | +2.5 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | DAL | +2.5 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | DAL | +2.5 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 54% | 56% | -1.9 | DAL | +2.0 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 55% | 57% | -1.9 | DAL | +1.5 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 55% | 57% | -1.9 | DAL | +1.5 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 55% | 57% | -1.9 | DAL | +1.5 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.0 | DAL | +0.9 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.0 | DAL | +0.9 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.0 | DAL | +0.9 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.0 | DAL | +0.9 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.0 | DAL | +0.9 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.0 | DAL | +0.9 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.0 | DAL | +0.9 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.0 | DAL | +0.9 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.0 | DAL | +0.9 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 52% | 57% | -4.4 | DAL | +0.8 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 52% | 57% | -4.4 | DAL | +0.8 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 52% | 57% | -4.4 | DAL | +0.8 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 52% | 57% | -4.4 | DAL | +0.8 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.2 | DAL | +0.8 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.2 | DAL | +0.8 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.2 | DAL | +0.8 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.2 | DAL | +0.8 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.2 | DAL | +0.8 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 53% | 57% | -4.2 | DAL | +0.8 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 56% | 57% | -0.4 | DAL | +1.9 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 57% | 57% | -0.2 | DAL | +1.9 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 56% | 57% | -0.4 | DAL | +1.8 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 56% | 57% | -0.4 | DAL | +1.8 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 56% | 57% | -0.4 | DAL | +1.8 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 56% | 57% | -0.4 | DAL | +1.8 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 56% | 57% | -0.4 | DAL | +1.8 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 56% | 57% | -0.4 | DAL | +1.8 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 56% | 57% | -0.4 | DAL | +1.8 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 56% | 57% | -0.4 | DAL | +1.8 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 56% | 57% | -0.4 | DAL | +1.8 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (DAL) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 68% (-3.5) | 66% (+3.5) | 44 |
| Kalshi | 64% | 66% | 34 |
| DraftKings | 63% (+4.5) | 60% (+3.5) | 22 |
| nflverse price | 64% (+4.5) | 66% (+3.5) | 40 |
| niftiNFL | 56% | 56% (+1.8) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker placed on injured reserve with hamstring injury from Week 1 vs Eagles | WAS | Jordan Magee | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB out for the year after hip surgery | DAL | Malik Davis | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Veteran OL signed to bolster interior offensive line ahead of Week 2 game in Dallas | WAS | Lucas Patrick | 0.80 | -0.4 | hurt +0.004 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs Cowboys | WAS | Chig Okonkwo | 0.99 | +2.0 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs Cowboys | WAS | Frankie Luvu | 0.99 | +2.0 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety will miss 1-2 weeks with fractured forearm suffered in Week 1 | DAL | Malik Hooker | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Linebacker will miss 1-2 weeks with hamstring injury suffered in Week 1 | DAL | DeMarvion Overshown | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety fractured bone in forearm in Week 1; unclear return timeline | DAL | Malik Hooker | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out EDGE reinstated Monday after serving one-game suspension | WAS | Dorance Armstrong | 0.90 | -1.4 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB groin strain, status up in the air for Week 2 road game vs Cowboys | WAS | Frankie Luvu | 0.65 | +1.3 | helped -0.011 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end held out of Wednesday practice; status for Week 2 vs Dallas unclear | WAS | Chig Okonkwo | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Returns to Dallas on Sunday after missing Week 1 | DAL | Dorance Armstrong | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.010 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Jaishawn Barham to start at middle linebacker and wear green dot (defensive play-caller) with DeMarvion Overshown out | DAL | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.003 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Rookie LB starting at middle linebacker with green dot (play-calling), replacing injured Overshown | DAL | Jaishawn Barham | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.003 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Commanders signed veteran OL Lucas Patrick to address interior offensive line depth ahead of Week 2 vs Dallas | WAS | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.003 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Veteran OL Lucas Patrick signed to roster ahead of Week 2 vs Dallas | WAS | Lucas Patrick | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.003 |
Quick answers
Who won Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys?
The Dallas Cowboys beat the Washington Commanders 37-20 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys?
niftiNFL picks the Dallas Cowboys, 56% to win, with a projected score of Washington Commanders 25, Dallas Cowboys 27. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Dallas Cowboys; the final was Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37.