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Colts at Chiefs
KC
the pick · 66% to win (model 67%, analyst -1.5)
20–27
projected · KC by 6.6 · total 46.9
KC −6
final market margin · agrees
30–33
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -3.6 · total error +16.1
Why Kansas City Chiefs
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Daniel Jones vs Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 73.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Cloudy.
KC at home (+7); KC is the better team (+5); KC in better form (+5)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | KC win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | KC | +3.2 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | KC | +3.2 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | KC | +2.7 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | KC | +2.7 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | KC | +2.7 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | KC | +2.7 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | KC | +2.7 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | KC | +2.7 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | KC | +3.7 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | KC | +3.7 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | KC | +3.7 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | KC | +3.7 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 58% | 60% | -1.9 | KC | +3.7 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 63% | 64% | -1.9 | KC | +5.9 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | KC | +7.4 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | KC | +7.4 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | KC | +7.4 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | KC | +7.4 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | KC | +7.4 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | KC | +7.4 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.9 | KC | +7.4 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 67% | 71% | -3.4 | KC | +6.9 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 67% | 71% | -3.4 | KC | +6.9 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 67% | 71% | -3.4 | KC | +6.9 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 67% | 71% | -3.4 | KC | +6.9 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 67% | 71% | -3.4 | KC | +6.9 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 67% | 71% | -3.4 | KC | +6.9 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 67% | 71% | -3.4 | KC | +6.9 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 67% | 71% | -3.4 | KC | +6.9 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 67% | 71% | -3.4 | KC | +6.9 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.5 | KC | +7.5 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 69% | 71% | -1.5 | KC | +7.5 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 66% | 67% | -1.5 | KC | +6.6 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 66% | 67% | -1.5 | KC | +6.6 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 66% | 67% | -1.5 | KC | +6.6 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 66% | 67% | -1.5 | KC | +6.6 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 66% | 67% | -1.5 | KC | +6.6 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 66% | 67% | -1.5 | KC | +6.6 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 66% | 67% | -1.5 | KC | +6.6 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 66% | 67% | -1.5 | KC | +6.6 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 66% | 67% | -1.5 | KC | +6.6 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 66% | 67% | -1.5 | KC | +6.6 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 66% | 67% | -1.5 | KC | +6.6 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (KC) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 71% (+3.5) | 72% (+6.5) | 45 |
| Kalshi | 72% | 72% | 36 |
| DraftKings | 69% (+6.5) | 67% (+6.0) | 24 |
| nflverse price | 71% (+6.5) | 70% (+6.0) | 42 |
| niftiNFL | 60% | 66% (+6.6) | 43 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Chiefs defensive starter ruled out for at least four games after Wednesday roster moves | KC | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.010 | |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR faces minimum three-game suspension after arrest; blood-alcohol level nearly three times legal limit | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Sunday night's matchup with the Chiefs | IND | Ashton Dulin | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report LT ruled out vs. Broncos; undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson to start at LT | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Linebacker injured; Chiefs looking for linebackers after injury | KC | Cooper McDonald | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Formally charged with two misdemeanors (DUI-related) from August arrest; BAC measured at 0.224% | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') CB to have MRI on shoulder after Week 1 injury; status unclear for Week 2 | KC | Mansoor Delane | 0.60 | -1.2 | hurt +0.008 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil Colts coaching staff made error assigning green dot (helmet transmitter) to safety instead of linebacker; switched to LB Akeem Davis-Gaither for Week 2 | IND | 0.70 | +0.7 | helped -0.004 | |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil Formally charged with two misdemeanors related to August DUI arrest | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.70 | +0.7 | helped -0.004 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Colts switched defensive play-caller from safety to LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (helmet transmitter) after Week 1 communication breakdown | IND | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.002 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for other Chiefs elevated 2 practice squad players for Sunday Night Football game | KC | 0.60 | +0.3 | helped -0.002 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for other Formally charged with two misdemeanors from August DUI arrest; legal status may affect availability or focus | IND | Keenan Allen | 0.60 | +0.3 | helped -0.002 |
Quick answers
Who won Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs?
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Indianapolis Colts 33-30 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs?
niftiNFL picks the Kansas City Chiefs, 66% to win, with a projected score of Indianapolis Colts 20, Kansas City Chiefs 27. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Kansas City Chiefs; the final was Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 33.