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Raiders at Chargers
LAC
the pick · 64% to win (model 66%, analyst -1.9)
20–24
projected · LAC by 3.6 · total 44.4
LAC −6.5
final market margin · agrees
26–14
final · ✕
ATS ✓ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -15.6 · total error -4.4
Why Los Angeles Chargers
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Kirk Cousins vs Justin Herbert at quarterback.
LAC is the better team (+9); LAC at home (+7); LV has the schedule edge (-2)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | LAC win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 78% | 76% | +1.9 | LAC | +9.3 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 78% | 76% | +1.9 | LAC | +9.3 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 78% | 76% | +1.9 | LAC | +9.3 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 78% | 76% | +1.9 | LAC | +9.3 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 78% | 76% | +1.9 | LAC | +9.3 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 78% | 76% | +1.9 | LAC | +9.3 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 78% | 76% | +1.9 | LAC | +9.3 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 78% | 76% | +1.9 | LAC | +9.3 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 78% | 76% | +1.9 | LAC | +9.3 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | LAC | +4.2 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | LAC | +4.2 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | LAC | +4.2 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | LAC | +4.2 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | LAC | +4.2 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | LAC | +4.2 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | LAC | +4.2 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | LAC | +4.2 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.9 | LAC | +4.2 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 65% | 65% | -0.1 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | LAC | +3.7 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 65% | 65% | -0.2 | LAC | +3.6 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 67% | 65% | +1.7 | LAC | +4.2 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 64% | 66% | -1.9 | LAC | +3.6 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 64% | 66% | -1.9 | LAC | +3.6 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 64% | 66% | -1.9 | LAC | +3.6 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 64% | 66% | -1.9 | LAC | +3.6 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 64% | 66% | -1.9 | LAC | +3.6 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 64% | 66% | -1.9 | LAC | +3.6 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 64% | 66% | -1.9 | LAC | +3.6 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 64% | 66% | -1.9 | LAC | +3.6 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (LAC) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 80% (+9.5) | 74% (+6.5) | 43 |
| Kalshi | 74% | 74% | 33 |
| DraftKings | 69% (+6.5) | 69% (+6.5) | 21 |
| nflverse price | 77% (+9.5) | 73% (+6.5) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 78% | 64% (+3.6) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on Injured Reserve with hamstring injury from Week 1; out at least one month | LAC | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Listed out vs. Raiders | LAC | Elijah Molden | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Doubtful to play Week 2; missed Week 1 after knee surgery (meniscus trim) | LV | Brock Bowers | 0.85 | +1.7 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver exited Week 1 game after taking big hit over the middle; injury status unclear for Week 2 | LAC | Ladd McConkey | 0.70 | -1.4 | helped -0.019 |
Quick answers
Who won Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers?
The Las Vegas Raiders beat the Los Angeles Chargers 26-14 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers?
niftiNFL picks the Los Angeles Chargers, 64% to win, with a projected score of Las Vegas Raiders 20, Los Angeles Chargers 24. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Los Angeles Chargers; the final was Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14.