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Seahawks at Cardinals
SEA
the pick · 69% to win (model 68%, analyst +0.4)
24–19
projected · SEA by 4.6 · total 42.8
SEA −3.5
final market margin · agrees
31–7
final · ✓
ATS ✓ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -19.4 · total error -4.8
Why Seattle Seahawks
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Drew Lock vs Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 97.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Partly Sunny.
SEA is the better team (+18); SEA in better form (+10); ARI at home (-7)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | ARI win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 24% | 24% | +0.0 | SEA | -7.9 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 24% | 24% | +0.0 | SEA | -7.9 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 24% | 24% | +0.0 | SEA | -7.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 24% | 24% | +0.0 | SEA | -7.9 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 22% | 24% | -1.9 | SEA | -8.4 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 22% | 24% | -1.9 | SEA | -8.4 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 22% | 24% | -1.9 | SEA | -8.4 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 22% | 24% | -1.9 | SEA | -8.4 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 23% | 24% | -0.8 | SEA | -8.1 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 30% | 29% | +0.9 | SEA | -5.0 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 30% | 29% | +0.9 | SEA | -5.0 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 30% | 29% | +0.9 | SEA | -5.0 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 30% | 29% | +0.9 | SEA | -5.0 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 31% | 29% | +1.1 | SEA | -5.0 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 31% | 29% | +1.1 | SEA | -5.0 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 31% | 29% | +1.1 | SEA | -5.0 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 31% | 29% | +1.1 | SEA | -5.0 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 29% | 29% | -0.7 | SEA | -5.5 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 30% | 31% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.1 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 30% | 31% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.1 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 30% | 31% | -0.8 | SEA | -5.1 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 32% | 31% | +1.1 | SEA | -4.6 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 31% | 32% | -0.8 | SEA | -4.7 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 31% | 32% | -0.8 | SEA | -4.7 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 31% | 32% | -0.8 | SEA | -4.7 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 31% | 32% | -0.8 | SEA | -4.7 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 31% | 32% | -0.4 | SEA | -4.6 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (ARI) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 23% (-9.5) | 34% (-3.5) | 44 |
| Kalshi | 33% | 34% | 34 |
| DraftKings | 40% (-3.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 22 |
| nflverse price | 31% (-5.5) | 34% (-3.5) | 36 |
| niftiNFL | 24% | 31% (-4.6) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve after Week 1 | ARI | Kitan Crawford | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Cardinals defeated Chargers 26-14 in Week 1 upset (9.5-point pick), building momentum heading into Week 2 | ARI | 0.75 | +1.1 | hurt +0.007 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Third-year guard Haynes will start at left guard in place of injured Anthony Bradford | SEA | Christian Haynes | 0.85 | +0.4 | hurt +0.003 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Darnold out with injury suffered in Week 1 vs. New England; Drew Lock is replacement starter | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.041 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 with glute injury; Drew Lock is named starter | SEA | Sam Darnold | 1.00 | +2.0 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out of Cardinals game with hip and knee injury; Christian Haynes starting at left tackle | SEA | Anthony Bradford | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Seahawks QB injured in Week 1; could miss 4-6 weeks | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Placed on injured reserve early in season | ARI | Myles Garrett | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.012 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in Cardinals upset Chargers 26-14 in Week 1 under new coach Mike LaFleur; first win for new regime builds confidence | ARI | 0.75 | +1.1 | hurt +0.007 | |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation Seahawks legend Fredd Young died at 64; emotional impact on team this week | SEA | 0.65 | +1.0 | hurt +0.006 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key_player_out WR limited in practice Wednesday with back injury; status unclear for Sunday | SEA | Cooper Kupp | 0.40 | +0.8 | hurt +0.005 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other WR limited in practice Wednesday with back injury; not on official injury report yet | SEA | Cooper Kupp | 0.65 | +0.3 | hurt +0.002 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Both starting guards on injury report; status unclear heading into Week 2 | ARI | 0.65 | -0.3 | helped -0.002 |
Quick answers
Who won Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals?
The Seattle Seahawks beat the Arizona Cardinals 31-7 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals?
niftiNFL picks the Seattle Seahawks, 69% to win, with a projected score of Seattle Seahawks 24, Arizona Cardinals 19. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Seattle Seahawks; the final was Seattle Seahawks 31, Arizona Cardinals 7.