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Browns at Buccaneers
TB
the pick · 74% to win (model 70%, analyst +3.7)
18–26
projected · TB by 7.9 · total 43.2
TB −8.5
final market margin · agrees
23–19
final · ✕
ATS ✓ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -11.9 · total error -1.2
Why Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Deshaun Watson vs Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 86.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
TB at home (+7); TB has the QB edge (+6); TB is the better team (+5)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | TB win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | TB | +5.4 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | TB | +5.4 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | TB | +5.4 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | TB | +5.4 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | TB | +5.4 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | TB | +5.4 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | TB | +5.4 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | TB | +5.4 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | TB | +5.4 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | TB | +5.4 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 70% | 70% | +0.0 | TB | +5.4 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.0 | TB | +6.5 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.0 | TB | +6.5 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.0 | TB | +6.5 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.0 | TB | +6.5 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.0 | TB | +6.5 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.0 | TB | +6.5 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.0 | TB | +6.5 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.0 | TB | +6.5 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.4 | TB | +6.6 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.4 | TB | +6.6 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 69% | 69% | +0.4 | TB | +6.6 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 70% | 69% | +1.5 | TB | +6.9 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 72% | 70% | +1.5 | TB | +7.3 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 72% | 70% | +1.5 | TB | +7.3 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 72% | 70% | +1.5 | TB | +7.3 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 72% | 70% | +1.5 | TB | +7.3 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 72% | 70% | +1.5 | TB | +7.3 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 72% | 70% | +1.5 | TB | +7.3 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 74% | 70% | +3.7 | TB | +7.9 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (TB) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 73% (+7.5) | 78% (+7.5) | 43 |
| Kalshi | 80% | 78% | 32 |
| DraftKings | 74% (+8.5) | 74% (+8.5) | 20 |
| nflverse price | 71% (+6.5) | 78% (+8.5) | 40 |
| niftiNFL | 70% | 74% (+7.9) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB placed on IR (Tuesday, Sept 15) | CLE | Dylan Sampson | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.026 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Browns plan to re-evaluate QB position after Week 2, with Shedeur Sanders potentially starting Week 3 at home if Watson struggles | CLE | 0.75 | +1.1 | hurt +0.016 | |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Playing against former team (drafted #1 overall by Browns in 2018); has game circled since schedule release | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.75 | +1.1 | hurt +0.016 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) QB reported headset issues in Week 1 game, couldn't hear play calls from sideline | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.85 | -0.4 | helped -0.006 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') HC Todd Monken said Browns will 'evaluate everything' before facing Tampa Bay after Watson's poor Week 1 performance (34-10 loss); starter status uncertain | CLE | Deshaun Watson | 0.65 | +3.9 | hurt +0.054 |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') TE will not return to Browns or NFL this year; league suspension | CLE | Dae'Quan Wright | 0.90 | +1.8 | hurt +0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback did not practice Thursday with ankle injury; already thin at cornerback position | CLE | Tyson Campbell | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR McMillan fully participated in Thursday practice after missing Week 1 with knee injury, on track to play | TB | Jalen McMillan | 0.85 | +1.3 | hurt +0.018 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in Mayfield stated team has 'bad taste in mouth' from Week 1 loss; wants to get it out against former team Cleveland | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.75 | +1.1 | hurt +0.016 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in Baker Mayfield said Buccaneers have 'bad taste in mouth' from Week 1 loss, want to get it out against Cleveland next | TB | 0.70 | +1.1 | hurt +0.015 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Baker Mayfield had headset issues in Week 1 vs Cincinnati, couldn't hear play calls | TB | 0.75 | -0.4 | helped -0.005 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other CB did not practice Thursday with ankle injury; status unclear for Sunday | CLE | Tyson Campbell | 0.65 | +0.3 | hurt +0.005 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield had headset communication issues in Week 1 loss to Bengals, couldn't hear play calls in helmet. | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.65 | -0.3 | helped -0.005 |
Quick answers
Who won Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The Cleveland Browns beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-19 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
niftiNFL picks the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 74% to win, with a projected score of Cleveland Browns 18, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; the final was Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19.