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Saints at Ravens
BAL
the pick · 73% to win (model 72%, analyst +1.6)
19–28
projected · BAL by 8.9 · total 46.8
BAL −8.5
final market margin · agrees
24–17
final · ✕
ATS ✕ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -15.9 · total error -5.8
Why Baltimore Ravens
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Tyler Shough vs Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 78.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Scattered Rain Showers.
BAL is the better team (+9); BAL at home (+6); BAL has the QB edge (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | BAL win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 72% | 72% | +0.0 | BAL | +7.9 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 74% | 72% | +1.9 | BAL | +8.4 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 74% | 72% | +1.9 | BAL | +8.4 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 74% | 72% | +1.9 | BAL | +8.4 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 74% | 72% | +1.9 | BAL | +8.4 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 74% | 72% | +1.9 | BAL | +8.4 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 76% | 72% | +3.8 | BAL | +9.0 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 76% | 72% | +3.5 | BAL | +8.9 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 76% | 72% | +3.5 | BAL | +8.9 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 76% | 72% | +3.5 | BAL | +8.9 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 76% | 72% | +3.5 | BAL | +8.9 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 79% | 75% | +3.5 | BAL | +10.7 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 79% | 75% | +3.5 | BAL | +10.7 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 77% | 75% | +2.0 | BAL | +10.3 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 77% | 75% | +1.8 | BAL | +10.2 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 77% | 75% | +1.8 | BAL | +10.2 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 77% | 75% | +1.8 | BAL | +10.2 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 77% | 75% | +1.8 | BAL | +10.2 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 77% | 75% | +2.0 | BAL | +10.3 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 77% | 75% | +1.8 | BAL | +10.2 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 77% | 75% | +1.6 | BAL | +10.1 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 79% | 75% | +4.0 | BAL | +10.8 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 79% | 75% | +4.0 | BAL | +10.8 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 76% | 75% | +0.3 | BAL | +9.8 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 73% | 72% | +1.6 | BAL | +8.9 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 73% | 72% | +1.6 | BAL | +8.9 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 73% | 72% | +1.6 | BAL | +8.9 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 73% | 72% | +1.6 | BAL | +8.9 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 73% | 72% | +1.6 | BAL | +8.9 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 73% | 72% | +1.6 | BAL | +8.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 73% | 72% | +1.6 | BAL | +8.9 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (BAL) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 78% (-13.5) | 78% (+7.5) | 43 |
| Kalshi | 80% | 78% | 32 |
| DraftKings | 71% (+7.5) | 74% (+8.5) | 20 |
| nflverse price | 75% (+7.5) | 76% (+8.5) | 40 |
| niftiNFL | 72% | 73% (+8.9) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie WR placed on IR with fractured wrist, will miss at least a month | BAL | Ja'Kobi Lane | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR, will miss multiple weeks | NO | Audric Estime | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report RB not expected to play Sunday vs. Ravens | NO | Alvin Kamara | 0.80 | +1.6 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Listed questionable but practice squad WR elevation signals likely absence from Baltimore game | NO | Chris Olave | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rookie WR suffered wrist injury in Week 1, will not return to game | BAL | Ja'Kobi Lane | 0.70 | -1.4 | helped -0.020 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out All-Pro edge rusher will play through broken finger | BAL | Trey Hendrickson | 0.92 | +1.4 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ravens WR hamstring injury from Week 1; status day-to-day but not ruled out for Week 2 | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR exited Week 1 game with hamstring injury; status for Week 2 unclear but injury occurred in-week | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Running back making 2026 debut after practicing fully; Saints feel good about him playing | NO | Alvin Kamara | 0.85 | -1.3 | helped -0.018 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Ravens worked out WR Brandin Cooks on Thursday; exploring receiver help with Flowers hamstring injury and Lane on IR | BAL | 0.75 | +0.4 | hurt +0.005 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other WR hamstring injury called day-to-day by coach Minter after Week 1; status uncertain for Week 2 | BAL | Zay Flowers | 0.75 | -0.4 | helped -0.005 |
Quick answers
Who won New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens?
The New Orleans Saints beat the Baltimore Ravens 24-17 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens?
niftiNFL picks the Baltimore Ravens, 73% to win, with a projected score of New Orleans Saints 19, Baltimore Ravens 28. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Baltimore Ravens; the final was New Orleans Saints 24, Baltimore Ravens 17.