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Packers at Jets
GB
the pick · 63% to win
24–23
projected · GB by 1.6 · total 47.3
GB −3.5
final market margin · agrees
20–17
final · ✓
ATS ✓ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -1.4 · total error -10.3
Why Green Bay Packers
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Jordan Love vs Geno Smith at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Periods Of Light Rain.
GB is the better team (+11); GB has the QB edge (+10); NYJ at home (-7)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | NYJ win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 1:06 PM ET | 23% | 23% | +0.0 | GB | -7.5 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 23% | 23% | +0.0 | GB | -7.5 |
| Sat 7:01 PM ET | 23% | 23% | +0.0 | GB | -7.5 |
| Sun 7:01 AM ET | 23% | 23% | +0.0 | GB | -7.5 |
| Sun 11:03 AM ET | 23% | 23% | +0.0 | GB | -7.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 23% | 23% | +0.0 | GB | -7.5 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 23% | 23% | +0.0 | GB | -7.5 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 23% | 23% | +0.0 | GB | -7.5 |
| Sun 5:26 PM ET | 23% | 23% | +0.0 | GB | -7.5 |
| Sun 7:01 PM ET | 23% | 23% | +0.0 | GB | -7.5 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 23% | 23% | +0.0 | GB | -7.5 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Mon 11:03 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Mon 7:01 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Mon 8:02 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Tue 7:02 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Wed 7:01 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Wed 3:03 PM ET | 36% | 37% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Wed 7:02 PM ET | 36% | 37% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 36% | 37% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 36% | 37% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 36% | 37% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.7 | GB | -2.1 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.2 | GB | -1.5 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | GB | -1.6 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (NYJ) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 32% (-5.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 43 |
| Kalshi | 34% | 38% | 32 |
| DraftKings | 37% (-4.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 20 |
| nflverse price | 32% (-5.5) | 38% (-3.5) | 40 |
| niftiNFL | 23% | 37% (-1.6) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety ruled out for Week 2 vs Packers | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR week-to-week with ankle sprain from Week 1; expected to miss time | NYJ | Omar Cooper | 0.85 | -1.7 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Defensive lineman downgraded to non-participant due to knee injury and concussion | GB | Javon Hargrave | 0.80 | +1.6 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR week-to-week with ankle sprain from Week 1, first-round pick | NYJ | Omar Cooper Jr. | 0.80 | -1.6 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Removed from injury report, cleared to play | GB | Lukas Van Ness | 0.90 | -1.4 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Key defensive contributor added to injury report Thursday | NYJ | Will McDonald | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback suffered injury in first quarter of Week 1 vs. Titans; status unclear for Week 2 | NYJ | Jarvis Brownlee | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety suffered injury in first quarter of Week 1 vs. Titans; status unclear for Week 2 | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.009 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver suffered injury in first quarter of Week 1 vs. Titans; status unclear for Week 2 | NYJ | Omar Cooper | 0.60 | -1.2 | helped -0.009 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation Packers suffered late-game meltdown loss to Vikings (39-22) after controversial fourth-down call by LaFleur; team facing adversity entering Week 2 | GB | 0.65 | +1.0 | hurt +0.007 |
Quick answers
Who won Green Bay Packers at New York Jets?
The Green Bay Packers beat the New York Jets 20-17 in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Green Bay Packers at New York Jets?
niftiNFL picks the Green Bay Packers, 63% to win, with a projected score of Green Bay Packers 24, New York Jets 23. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Green Bay Packers; the final was Green Bay Packers 20, New York Jets 17.