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Falcons at Packers
GB
the pick · 76% to win (model 72%, analyst +3.8)
20–27
projected · GB by 6.8 · total 47.1
GB −4.5
final market margin · agrees
35–14
final · ✕
ATS ✕ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -27.8 · total error +1.9
Why Green Bay Packers
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Michael Penix Jr. vs Jordan Love at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Partly Cloudy.
GB has the QB edge (+9); GB is the better team (+6); GB at home (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | GB win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 73% | 71% | +1.9 | GB | +5.7 |
| Thu 11:01 AM ET | 73% | 71% | +1.9 | GB | +5.7 |
| Thu 3:02 PM ET | 73% | 71% | +1.9 | GB | +5.7 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 73% | 71% | +1.9 | GB | +5.7 |
| Thu 8:02 PM ET | 73% | 71% | +1.9 | GB | +5.7 |
| Fri 12:03 AM ET | 73% | 71% | +1.9 | GB | +5.7 |
| Fri 7:03 AM ET | 73% | 71% | +1.9 | GB | +5.7 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 73% | 71% | +1.9 | GB | +5.7 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 73% | 71% | +1.9 | GB | +5.7 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 66% | 64% | +1.9 | GB | +2.7 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 66% | 64% | +1.9 | GB | +2.7 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 66% | 64% | +1.9 | GB | +2.7 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 66% | 64% | +1.9 | GB | +2.7 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 66% | 64% | +1.9 | GB | +2.7 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 66% | 64% | +1.9 | GB | +2.7 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 66% | 64% | +1.9 | GB | +2.7 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 66% | 64% | +1.9 | GB | +2.7 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 63% | 64% | -1.9 | GB | +1.7 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 63% | 64% | -1.9 | GB | +1.7 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 63% | 64% | -1.9 | GB | +1.7 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 63% | 64% | -1.4 | GB | +1.8 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 68% | 70% | -1.1 | GB | +4.2 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 68% | 70% | -1.1 | GB | +4.2 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 68% | 70% | -1.1 | GB | +4.2 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 72% | 73% | -0.7 | GB | +5.6 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 72% | 73% | -0.7 | GB | +5.6 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 72% | 73% | -0.7 | GB | +5.6 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 72% | 73% | -0.7 | GB | +5.6 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 72% | 73% | -0.7 | GB | +5.6 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 72% | 73% | -0.7 | GB | +5.6 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 74% | 73% | +1.2 | GB | +6.1 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 73% | 73% | +0.6 | GB | +6.0 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 73% | 73% | +0.6 | GB | +6.0 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 73% | 73% | +0.6 | GB | +6.0 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 73% | 73% | +0.6 | GB | +6.0 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 71% | 73% | -1.4 | GB | +5.4 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 76% | 73% | +3.8 | GB | +6.8 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 76% | 73% | +3.8 | GB | +6.8 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 76% | 73% | +3.8 | GB | +6.8 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 76% | 73% | +3.8 | GB | +6.8 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 76% | 73% | +3.8 | GB | +6.8 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (GB) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 74% (+7.5) | 68% (+4.5) | 41 |
| Kalshi | 73% | 68% | 41 |
| DraftKings | 66% (+5.5) | 63% (+4.5) | 9 |
| nflverse price | 73% (+6.5) | 67% (+4.5) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 73% | 76% (+6.8) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback placed on IR ahead of Week 3 | ATL | A.J. Terrell | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.027 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report DL Da'Shawn Hand placed on IR with season-ending quad injury from Week 1 | ATL | Da'Shawn Hand | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.027 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tua Tagovailoa listed as doubtful for Week 2 vs Panthers; Cooper Rush starting instead | ATL | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.080 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cooper Rush to start for Falcons vs Panthers Week 2; Tua Tagovailoa doubtful with oblique injury | ATL | Cooper Rush | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.080 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Falcons QB situation unsettled; Cooper Rush and Michael Penix Jr. splitting reps Wednesday, starter not named for Week 2 vs Packers | ATL | 0.75 | +4.5 | hurt +0.064 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Could debut for Falcons on Thursday night; Stefanski said timing of decision unclear after 34-3 loss to Panthers | ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 0.65 | -3.9 | helped -0.057 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Left guard ruled out vs. Falcons | GB | Aaron Banks | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.029 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Right tackle out for season with torn patellar tendon | GB | Zach Bako-Bewele | 0.99 | -2.0 | helped -0.029 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tore patellar tendon vs. Jets in Week 2 | GB | Zach Bako-Bewele | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.028 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR remains in New Jersey being evaluated after back injury sustained in Week 2 OT win; status unclear for Thursday | GB | Jayden Reed | 0.75 | -1.5 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerstone cornerback dealing with groin issue heading into Thursday night game | ATL | A.J. Terrell | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out of Jets game Week 2; status for Thursday vs Falcons unclear | GB | Jayden Reed | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.019 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DL passed concussion protocol and will play Week 3 vs Falcons | GB | Javon Hargrave | 0.85 | +1.3 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out CB making 2026 debut tonight after being unavailable to start season | ATL | Billy Bowman | 0.70 | -1.1 | helped -0.015 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for turmoil Falcons lost 34-3 to Panthers in Week 2; Drake London got into verbal altercation with fan; team described as not ready for prime time | ATL | 0.70 | +0.7 | hurt +0.010 |
Quick answers
Who won Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers?
The Atlanta Falcons beat the Green Bay Packers 35-14 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers?
niftiNFL picks the Green Bay Packers, 76% to win, with a projected score of Atlanta Falcons 20, Green Bay Packers 27. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Green Bay Packers; the final was Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14.