NFL
More
Patriots at Jaguars
JAX
the pick · 62% to win (model 58%, analyst +4.0)
21–25
projected · JAX by 3.9 · total 45.8
JAX −3
final market margin · agrees
6–35
final · ✓
ATS ✓ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +25.1 · total error -4.8
Why Jacksonville Jaguars
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Drake Maye vs Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 82.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
JAX at home (+8); NE is the better team (-2); JAX in better form (+2)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | JAX win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 63% | 63% | +0.0 | JAX | +5.4 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 63% | 63% | +0.0 | JAX | +5.4 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 63% | 63% | +0.0 | JAX | +5.4 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 63% | 63% | +0.0 | JAX | +5.4 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 63% | 63% | +0.0 | JAX | +5.4 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 63% | 63% | +0.0 | JAX | +5.4 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 63% | 63% | +0.0 | JAX | +5.4 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 63% | 63% | +0.0 | JAX | +5.4 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 63% | 63% | +0.0 | JAX | +5.4 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 59% | 57% | +1.9 | JAX | +3.0 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 61% | 57% | +3.8 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 61% | 57% | +3.8 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 61% | 57% | +3.8 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 61% | 57% | +3.8 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 61% | 57% | +3.8 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 61% | 57% | +3.8 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 61% | 57% | +3.8 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 61% | 57% | +3.8 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 61% | 57% | +3.8 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 61% | 57% | +3.8 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 61% | 57% | +3.8 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 61% | 57% | +4.0 | JAX | +3.6 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 62% | 58% | +4.0 | JAX | +3.9 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 62% | 58% | +4.0 | JAX | +3.9 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 62% | 58% | +4.0 | JAX | +3.9 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 62% | 58% | +4.0 | JAX | +3.9 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 62% | 58% | +4.0 | JAX | +3.9 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 62% | 58% | +4.0 | JAX | +3.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 62% | 58% | +4.0 | JAX | +3.9 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (JAX) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 56% (+0.5) | 60% (+2.5) | 41 |
| Kalshi | 54% | 60% | 41 |
| DraftKings | 59% (+3.0) | 59% (+3.0) | 21 |
| nflverse price | 55% (+2.5) | 58% (+3.0) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 63% | 62% (+3.9) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety placed on injured reserve | NE | Dell Pettus | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Right guard placed on injured reserve with ankle fracture | NE | Mike Onwenu | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety out for Week 3 | NE | Craig Woodson | 0.90 | +1.8 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Linebacker ruled out for Week 3 | NE | Dre'Mont Jones | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Guard suffered broken ankle in Week 2 game vs. Steelers (Sep 20) | NE | Mike Onwenu | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety injured; Patriots exploring free agency replacements | NE | Dell Pettus | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Safety injured; Patriots exploring free agency replacements | NE | Craig Woodson | 0.85 | +1.7 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Linebacker out of practice Thursday; defensive starter sidelined | NE | Dre'Mont Jones | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Joins New England's sidelined group per Thursday injury report | NE | Eli Raridon | 0.70 | +1.4 | helped -0.011 |
Quick answers
Who won New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars?
The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the New England Patriots 35-6 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars?
niftiNFL picks the Jacksonville Jaguars, 62% to win, with a projected score of New England Patriots 21, Jacksonville Jaguars 25. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Jacksonville Jaguars; the final was New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35.