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Rams at Broncos
DEN
the pick · 51% to win (model 51%, analyst -0.1)
24–24
projected · DEN by 0.5 · total 48.0
DEN −1.5
final market margin · agrees
26–30
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +3.5 · total error +8.0
Why Denver Broncos
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Matthew Stafford vs Bo Nix at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 80.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Slight Chance Rain Showers.
DEN at home (+8); LA has the QB edge (-7); LA missing 2 starters (+3)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | DEN win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 51% | 51% | +0.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.7 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.7 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.7 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.7 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.7 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 53% | 53% | +0.0 | DEN | +1.7 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | LA | -0.5 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | LA | -0.5 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | LA | -0.5 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | LA | -0.5 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | LA | -0.5 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | LA | -0.5 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | LA | -0.5 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | DEN | +0.5 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | LA | -0.5 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 53% | 51% | +1.9 | DEN | +1.0 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 53% | 51% | +1.9 | DEN | +1.0 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 53% | 51% | +1.9 | DEN | +1.0 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 53% | 51% | +1.9 | DEN | +1.0 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 55% | 51% | +3.8 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 55% | 51% | +3.8 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 55% | 51% | +3.8 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 55% | 51% | +3.8 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 55% | 51% | +3.8 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 55% | 51% | +3.8 | DEN | +1.6 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 51% | 51% | -0.1 | DEN | +0.5 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (DEN) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44% (-3.5) | 50% (-2.5) | 43 |
| Kalshi | 44% | 50% | 43 |
| DraftKings | 43% (-2.5) | 46% (-1.5) | 25 |
| nflverse price | 45% (-2.5) | 49% (-1.5) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 51% | 51% (+0.5) | 43 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back inactive for Week 3 | DEN | RJ Harvey | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Wide receiver inactive for Week 3; was game-time decision | DEN | Marvin Mims Jr. | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR on Wednesday | LA | Ronnie Rivers | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report DPOY expected to miss up to 6 weeks following surgery | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.90 | +1.8 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Rookie RB ruled out for SNF game vs. Rams; ankle injury kept him out of practice all week | DEN | Jonah Coleman | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Star receiver unavailable for Week 3 vs Denver; McVay unsure of availability | LA | Puka Nacua | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Defensive tackle Aaron Donald confirmed to return for Week 2 after missing 2024 season; makes season debut Monday vs Giants | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.95 | -1.4 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Did not participate in practice (DNP); running back injury from Week 2 win vs Jacksonville | DEN | Jonah Coleman | 0.70 | -1.4 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.40 below floor for key_player_out Left Week 2 game vs Jacksonville with hamstring injury; status unclear for Week 3 | DEN | JK Dobbins | 0.40 | -0.8 | hurt +0.008 |
Quick answers
Who won Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos?
The Denver Broncos beat the Los Angeles Rams 30-26 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos?
niftiNFL picks the Denver Broncos, 51% to win, with a projected score of Los Angeles Rams 24, Denver Broncos 24. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Denver Broncos; the final was Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30.