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Chargers at Bills
BUF
the pick · 85% to win (model 82%, analyst +3.4)
18–31
projected · BUF by 13.5 · total 48.6
BUF −7
final market margin · agrees
16–24
final · ✓
ATS ✓ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -5.5 · total error -8.6
Why Buffalo Bills
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Justin Herbert vs Josh Allen at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 12.0 mph, Partly Sunny.
BUF is the better team (+9); BUF has the QB edge (+6); BUF at home (+5)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | BUF win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 79% | 79% | +0.0 | BUF | +11.1 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 79% | 79% | +0.0 | BUF | +11.1 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 79% | 79% | +0.0 | BUF | +11.1 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 79% | 79% | +0.0 | BUF | +11.1 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 79% | 79% | +0.0 | BUF | +11.1 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 79% | 79% | +0.0 | BUF | +11.1 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 79% | 79% | +0.0 | BUF | +11.1 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 81% | 79% | +1.5 | BUF | +11.5 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 81% | 79% | +1.5 | BUF | +11.5 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 83% | 81% | +1.5 | BUF | +12.6 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 83% | 81% | +1.7 | BUF | +12.7 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +2.5 | BUF | +12.9 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +2.5 | BUF | +12.9 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 85% | 81% | +4.8 | BUF | +13.6 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 85% | 81% | +4.8 | BUF | +13.6 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 86% | 81% | +4.8 | BUF | +13.6 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 86% | 81% | +4.8 | BUF | +13.6 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 86% | 81% | +4.8 | BUF | +13.6 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 86% | 81% | +4.8 | BUF | +13.6 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 86% | 81% | +4.8 | BUF | +13.6 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 86% | 81% | +4.8 | BUF | +13.6 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 86% | 81% | +4.8 | BUF | +13.6 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.0 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.0 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.0 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.1 | BUF | +13.1 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.0 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.0 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.0 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.0 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.0 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 84% | 81% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.0 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 86% | 81% | +5.0 | BUF | +13.6 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 86% | 81% | +5.0 | BUF | +13.6 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 85% | 82% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.4 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 85% | 82% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.4 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 85% | 82% | +3.0 | BUF | +13.4 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 85% | 82% | +3.4 | BUF | +13.5 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 85% | 82% | +3.4 | BUF | +13.5 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 85% | 82% | +3.4 | BUF | +13.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 85% | 82% | +3.4 | BUF | +13.5 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (BUF) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 71% (+4.5) | 76% (+7.5) | 41 |
| Kalshi | 70% | 76% | 41 |
| DraftKings | 70% (+7.0) | 70% (+7.0) | 21 |
| nflverse price | 67% (+4.5) | 74% (+7.0) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 79% | 85% (+13.5) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Tight end placed on injured reserve | LAC | David Njoku | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.006 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Chargers 0-2 start; first time Jim Harbaugh 0-2 as head coach; team morale issues evident | LAC | 0.70 | +1.1 | helped -0.004 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Chargers signed QB DJ Uiagalelei to active roster (Trey Pipkins III placed on IR) | LAC | 0.85 | +0.4 | helped -0.001 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report DB placed on IR | BUF | Jordan Hancock | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report OL ruled out for Week 3 vs Bills | LAC | Kayode Awosika | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out for Week 3 vs Bills | LAC | Brenen Thompson | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Tight end placed on injured reserve | LAC | Charlie Kolar | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report DT underwent appendectomy, out for game | BUF | T.J. Sanders | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') AC joint shoulder injury suffered in Week 2 vs Lions; status for Week 3 vs Chargers in doubt | BUF | D.J. Moore | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.006 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') DT underwent appendectomy; status for Week 3 unclear | BUF | T.J. Sanders | 0.70 | -1.4 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Added to injury report as questionable for Sunday; backup QB status uncertain | LAC | Trey Lance | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.004 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Tight end Patrick Herbert elevated to active roster for first time; can now be targeted by QB Justin Herbert | LAC | Patrick Herbert | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.001 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Bills signed WR Greg Dortch to active roster from practice squad | BUF | 0.75 | +0.4 | helped -0.001 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other WR signed to active roster from practice squad Friday before game | BUF | Greg Dortch | 0.75 | +0.4 | helped -0.001 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other QB DJ Uiagalelei signed to active roster as backup; Trey Lance listed questionable | LAC | DJ Uiagalelei | 0.70 | +0.3 | helped -0.001 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other WR signed to active roster from practice squad to bolster receiving corps | LAC | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0.70 | -0.3 | hurt +0.001 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Rookie WR Skyler Bell expected to make NFL debut vs Chargers | BUF | Skyler Bell | 0.65 | +0.3 | helped -0.001 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Chargers signed QB DJ Uiagalelei to active roster after placing Trey Pipkins on IR; backup QB depth affected | LAC | 0.65 | +0.3 | helped -0.001 |
Quick answers
Who won Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills?
The Buffalo Bills beat the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills?
niftiNFL picks the Buffalo Bills, 85% to win, with a projected score of Los Angeles Chargers 18, Buffalo Bills 31. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Buffalo Bills; the final was Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24.