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Vikings at Buccaneers
MIN
the pick · 54% to win (model 59%, analyst -5.0)
23–21
projected · MIN by 1.8 · total 43.5
MIN −1.5
final market margin · agrees
23–16
final · ✓
ATS ✓ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -5.2 · total error -4.5
Why Minnesota Vikings
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Carson Wentz (reported starter · feed lists Kyler Murray) vs Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 84.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
MIN is the better team (+10); TB at home (-8); MIN in better form (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | TB win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 48% | 48% | +0.0 | MIN | -1.9 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 55% | 48% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 55% | 48% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 55% | 48% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 55% | 48% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 55% | 48% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 55% | 48% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 55% | 48% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 51% | 44% | +7.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 50% | 44% | +6.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 50% | 44% | +6.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 50% | 44% | +6.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 50% | 44% | +6.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 50% | 43% | +6.5 | MIN | -0.9 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 50% | 44% | +6.5 | TB | +0.5 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 50% | 44% | +6.4 | TB | +0.5 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 52% | 44% | +8.6 | TB | +0.5 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 53% | 44% | +9.0 | TB | +0.5 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 48% | 41% | +6.8 | MIN | -1.3 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 48% | 41% | +6.8 | MIN | -1.3 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 48% | 41% | +6.8 | MIN | -1.3 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 48% | 41% | +6.8 | MIN | -1.3 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 48% | 41% | +6.8 | MIN | -1.3 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 48% | 41% | +6.8 | MIN | -1.3 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 48% | 41% | +6.8 | MIN | -1.3 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 46% | 41% | +5.0 | MIN | -1.8 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (TB) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 52% (+2.5) | 48% (-1.5) | 41 |
| Kalshi | 52% | 48% | 41 |
| DraftKings | 46% (-1.5) | 46% (-1.5) | 22 |
| nflverse price | 53% (+1.5) | 49% (-1.5) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 48% | 46% (-1.8) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Kyler Murray ruled out for Week 2 with concussion protocol; Wentz to start vs Bears | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.051 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive lineman ruled out for Week 3 vs Vikings | TB | Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back placed on IR with thumb injury | MIN | Jordan Mason | 0.90 | +1.8 | hurt +0.015 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Ronde Barber reports mood is not great at Buccaneers headquarters after 0-2 start and home loss to Browns | TB | 0.70 | -1.1 | helped -0.009 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Buccaneers morale issue: Ronde Barber reports 'mood is not great' at headquarters after 0-2 start | TB | 0.80 | +0.4 | hurt +0.003 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Murray suffered concussion in Week 1; Carson Wentz started Week 2; Murray expected to return Week 3 | MIN | Kyler Murray | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.051 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kyler Murray expected to return Week 3; Wentz starting Week 3 game vs TB | MIN | Carson Wentz | 0.95 | +5.7 | hurt +0.051 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Rookie starter ruled out for Sunday vs Vikings | TB | Josiah Trotter | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Rookie outside linebacker ruled out for Sunday vs Vikings | TB | Rueben Bain | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Punter set to miss some time with hamstring injury; Johnny Hekker added to practice squad | MIN | Brett Thorson | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB did not travel with team to Tampa; questionable for game | MIN | Ivan Pace Jr. | 0.65 | +1.3 | hurt +0.011 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation Buccaneers 0-2 start; Todd Bowles says team is 'angrily optimistic' after loss to Browns | TB | 0.65 | -1.0 | helped -0.008 | |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil Ronde Barber reports mood is not great at Buccaneers headquarters after 0-2 start and home-opener loss to Browns | TB | 0.75 | -0.8 | helped -0.006 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.35 below floor for key_player_out RB suffered knee injury in Week 2 vs Bears; worked to full practice Friday but hit hard enough to knock helmet off in game | MIN | Aaron Jones | 0.35 | +0.7 | hurt +0.006 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Punter Brett Thorson out with hamstring injury; Johnny Hekker added to practice squad as replacement | MIN | Brett Thorson | 0.75 | +0.4 | hurt +0.003 |
Quick answers
Who won Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The Minnesota Vikings beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-16 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
niftiNFL picks the Minnesota Vikings, 54% to win, with a projected score of Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Minnesota Vikings; the final was Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16.