NFL

Titans at Giants

Week 3, 2026 · Sep 27 · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET

NYG

the pick · 59% to win (model 69%, analyst -9.4)

20–23

projected · NYG by 2.8 · total 42.9

NYG −2.5

final market margin · agrees

7–12

final · ✓

ATS ✓ · O/U ✕

market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +2.2 · total error -23.9

Why New York Giants

Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Cam Ward vs Jameis Winston at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 63.0°F, wind 20.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers.

NYG at home (+7); NYG is the better team (+6); NYG in better form (+4)

Home field

+6.6

Team quality

+5.8

Recent form

+4.1

Quarterback

+3.1

Offense (EPA)

-2.0

Defense (EPA)

-0.4

Rest & schedule

+0.0

Injuries

+0.0

How the number moved

Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.

Run	NYG win	model	analyst	Pick	Market margin
Sat 3:02 PM ET	79%	79%	+0.0	NYG	+10.4
Sat 7:02 PM ET	79%	79%	+0.0	NYG	+10.4
Sun 7:03 AM ET	79%	79%	+0.0	NYG	+10.4
Sun 11:01 AM ET	79%	79%	+0.0	NYG	+10.4
Sun 11:47 AM ET	79%	79%	+0.0	NYG	+10.4
Sun 3:03 PM ET	79%	79%	+0.0	NYG	+10.4
Sun 4:12 PM ET	79%	79%	+0.0	NYG	+10.4
Sun 7:02 PM ET	79%	79%	+0.0	NYG	+10.4
Sun 8:02 PM ET	79%	79%	+0.0	NYG	+10.4
Mon 12:02 AM ET	78%	78%	+0.0	NYG	+9.7
Mon 7:03 AM ET	78%	78%	+0.0	NYG	+9.7
Mon 11:02 AM ET	78%	78%	+0.0	NYG	+9.7
Mon 3:02 PM ET	78%	78%	+0.0	NYG	+9.7
Mon 7:02 PM ET	78%	78%	+0.0	NYG	+9.7
Mon 8:03 PM ET	78%	78%	+0.0	NYG	+9.7
Tue 12:02 AM ET	74%	76%	-1.9	NYG	+7.7
Tue 7:02 AM ET	68%	70%	-1.9	NYG	+6.0
Tue 11:02 AM ET	68%	70%	-1.9	NYG	+6.0
Tue 3:03 PM ET	62%	70%	-7.6	NYG	+4.4
Tue 7:01 PM ET	62%	70%	-7.6	NYG	+4.4
Wed 7:02 AM ET	61%	70%	-7.8	NYG	+4.3
Wed 11:02 AM ET	59%	70%	-10.0	NYG	+3.7
Wed 3:01 PM ET	59%	70%	-10.0	NYG	+3.7
Wed 7:03 PM ET	59%	69%	-9.3	NYG	+2.8
Thu 7:03 AM ET	59%	69%	-9.3	NYG	+2.8
Thu 11:02 AM ET	59%	69%	-9.3	NYG	+2.8
Thu 3:01 PM ET	59%	69%	-9.5	NYG	+2.7
Thu 7:02 PM ET	59%	69%	-9.3	NYG	+2.8
Thu 8:01 PM ET	59%	69%	-9.5	NYG	+2.7
Fri 12:01 AM ET	59%	69%	-9.5	NYG	+2.7
Fri 7:02 AM ET	59%	69%	-9.3	NYG	+2.8
Fri 11:02 AM ET	59%	69%	-9.4	NYG	+2.8
Fri 3:03 PM ET	59%	69%	-9.4	NYG	+2.8
Fri 7:02 PM ET	59%	69%	-9.4	NYG	+2.8
Sat 7:03 AM ET	59%	69%	-9.4	NYG	+2.8
Sat 11:02 AM ET	59%	69%	-9.4	NYG	+2.8
Sat 3:02 PM ET	59%	69%	-9.4	NYG	+2.8
Sat 7:03 PM ET	59%	69%	-9.4	NYG	+2.8
Sun 7:03 AM ET	59%	69%	-9.4	NYG	+2.8
Sun 11:01 AM ET	59%	69%	-9.4	NYG	+2.8
Sun 11:47 AM ET	59%	69%	-9.4	NYG	+2.8

What the markets said

Probability the home team (NYG) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.

Source	Open	Close	Snapshots
Polymarket	69% (+7.5)	56% (+2.5)	41
Kalshi	70%	56%	41
DraftKings	57% (+2.5)	57% (+2.5)	21
nflverse price	69% (+5.5)	54% (+2.5)	38
niftiNFL	79%	59% (+2.8)	41

What the news layer did

Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →

Claim	Team	Player	Conf.	Points (home)	Graded
starting QB change not yet in the feed Jaxson Dart ruled out for season with knee injury; Jameis Winston becomes starting QB	NYG		0.99	-5.9	hurt +0.042
key starter out, not on the injury report Season-ending knee surgery for full meniscus tear; Jameis Winston now starter	NYG	Jaxson Dart	1.00	-2.0	hurt +0.013
key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker expected to miss time with sprained ankle; missed Thursday practice	NYG	Brian Burns	0.75	-1.5	hurt +0.010
weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) wind 20 mph at kickoff (Chance Rain Showers)	NYG		1.00	+0.0	pending
starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: retired: schedule feed now names this QB Jaxson Dart ruled out for season with severe knee injury; Jameis Winston becomes starting QB	NYG	Jameis Winston	0.95	-5.7	hurt +0.040
starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Jaxson Dart suffered severe knee injury; Jameis Winston becomes starting QB	NYG	Jameis Winston	0.95	-5.7	hurt +0.040
key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Sprained MCL, expected 2-to-4 week absence from Week 2 game vs Rams	NYG	Jaxson Dart	0.95	-1.9	hurt +0.012
key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left Week 2 game with left ankle injury in fourth quarter vs Rams	NYG	Brian Burns	0.85	-1.7	hurt +0.011
key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Injured in fourth quarter of Week 2 game vs Rams	NYG	Andrew Thomas	0.80	-1.6	hurt +0.010
key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Headed for MRI after injury in Week 2 vs Rams; status unclear	NYG	Malik Nabers	0.70	-1.4	hurt +0.009
motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for motivation Brian Daboll (Titans OC) facing former team Giants that fired him	TEN		0.60	-0.9	hurt +0.006
other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: offseason / logistics story, already priced in Titans elevated RB Michael Carter and signed DB Erick Hallett to active roster due to offensive backfield injuries	TEN		0.85	-0.4	hurt +0.003

Quick answers

Who won Tennessee Titans at New York Giants?

The New York Giants beat the Tennessee Titans 12-7 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.

Who does niftiNFL pick to win Tennessee Titans at New York Giants?

niftiNFL picks the New York Giants, 59% to win, with a projected score of Tennessee Titans 20, New York Giants 23. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.

Was the niftiNFL pick right?

Yes. The pick was the New York Giants; the final was Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12.

← All Week 3 picks