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Chiefs at Dolphins
KC
the pick · 60% to win (model 60%, analyst +0.4)
26–22
projected · KC by 4.5 · total 48.1
KC −10
final market margin · agrees
24–10
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -9.5 · total error -14.1
Why Kansas City Chiefs
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Patrick Mahomes vs Malik Willis at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 83.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Sunny.
KC is the better team (+11); KC in better form (+8); MIA at home (-8)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | MIA win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | KC | -4.6 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | KC | -4.6 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | KC | -4.6 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | KC | -4.6 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | KC | -4.6 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | KC | -4.6 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | KC | -4.6 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | KC | -4.6 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 40% | 40% | +0.0 | KC | -4.6 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.0 | KC | -5.0 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | KC | -5.4 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | KC | -5.4 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | KC | -5.4 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | KC | -5.4 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | KC | -5.4 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | KC | -5.3 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | KC | -5.3 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | KC | -5.3 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | KC | -5.3 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 37% | 37% | +0.0 | KC | -5.3 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 34% | 37% | -2.3 | KC | -5.9 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 36% | 37% | -0.4 | KC | -5.4 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 40% | 40% | -0.4 | KC | -4.5 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 40% | 40% | -0.4 | KC | -4.5 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 40% | 40% | -0.4 | KC | -4.5 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 40% | 40% | -0.4 | KC | -4.5 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 40% | 40% | -0.4 | KC | -4.5 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 40% | 40% | -0.4 | KC | -4.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 40% | 40% | -0.4 | KC | -4.5 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (MIA) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18% (-6.5) | 16% (-10.5) | 41 |
| Kalshi | 17% | 16% | 41 |
| DraftKings | 20% (-11.5) | 23% (-10.0) | 21 |
| nflverse price | 21% (-8.5) | 18% (-10.0) | 38 |
| niftiNFL | 40% | 40% (-4.5) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Dolphins bringing in kickers for tryouts; Riley Patterson struggling | MIA | 0.80 | -0.4 | helped -0.003 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out for Week 3 | MIA | Caleb Douglas | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report LT ruled out; undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson to start at left tackle | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.95 | +1.9 | hurt +0.016 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left tackle (2025 1st-round pick) week-to-week with back injury; missed Week 1 | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.75 | +1.5 | hurt +0.012 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kicker struggling; Dolphins bringing in kickers for tryouts ahead of Week 3 | MIA | Riley Patterson | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Wide receiver departed Week 2 game with heel injury; availability for Week 3 unclear | MIA | Alec Pierce | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.010 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Dolphins bringing in kickers for tryouts due to Riley Patterson struggles; potential kicker change | MIA | 0.75 | -0.4 | helped -0.003 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Undrafted rookie left tackle filling in for Simmons; has not allowed a sack in first two starts | KC | Kahlil Benson | 0.75 | -0.4 | helped -0.003 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Defensive end to wear Guardian Cap after fifth documented concussion; returns to practice but protective equipment may affect performance | MIA | Chop Robinson | 0.65 | -0.3 | helped -0.003 |
Quick answers
Who won Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins?
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins 24-10 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins?
niftiNFL picks the Kansas City Chiefs, 60% to win, with a projected score of Kansas City Chiefs 26, Miami Dolphins 22. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the Kansas City Chiefs; the final was Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10.