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Raiders at Saints
NO
the pick · 63% to win (model 66%, analyst -2.9)
20–24
projected · NO by 4.0 · total 44.9
NO −3.5
final market margin · agrees
35–27
final · ✕
ATS ✕ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -12.0 · total error +17.1
Why New Orleans Saints
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Kirk Cousins vs Tyler Shough at quarterback.
NO at home (+7); NO is the better team (+5); NO in better form (+2)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | NO win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | NO | +4.2 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | NO | +4.2 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | NO | +4.2 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | NO | +4.2 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | NO | +4.2 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | NO | +4.2 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | NO | +4.2 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | NO | +4.2 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 64% | 64% | +0.0 | NO | +4.4 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 64% | 64% | +0.0 | NO | +4.4 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 64% | 64% | +0.0 | NO | +4.4 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 64% | 64% | +0.0 | NO | +4.4 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 64% | 64% | +0.0 | NO | +4.4 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 64% | 64% | +0.0 | NO | +4.4 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 64% | 64% | +0.0 | NO | +4.4 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 64% | 64% | +0.0 | NO | +4.4 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 64% | 64% | +0.0 | NO | +4.4 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 63% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 63% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 63% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 63% | 64% | -1.9 | NO | +3.9 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 61% | 64% | -3.1 | NO | +3.5 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 63% | 66% | -3.1 | NO | +3.9 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 63% | 66% | -3.1 | NO | +3.9 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 63% | 66% | -3.1 | NO | +3.9 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 63% | 66% | -2.9 | NO | +4.0 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 63% | 66% | -2.9 | NO | +4.0 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 63% | 66% | -2.9 | NO | +4.0 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 63% | 66% | -2.9 | NO | +4.0 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 63% | 66% | -2.9 | NO | +4.0 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 63% | 66% | -2.9 | NO | +4.0 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (NO) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 60% (+4.5) | 64% (+3.5) | 42 |
| Kalshi | 60% | 62% | 42 |
| DraftKings | 59% (+3.0) | 60% (+3.5) | 23 |
| nflverse price | 59% (+3.0) | 63% (+3.5) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 66% | 63% (+4.0) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Left tackle suffered severe high ankle sprain, will have surgery; out for Saints vs Raiders | NO | Kelvin Banks Jr. | 0.95 | -1.9 | helped -0.025 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Saints ruled out two players for Sunday vs. Raiders (specific names not detailed in headline) | NO | 0.50 | -1.0 | helped -0.013 | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Saints LT carted off with ankle injury in Week 2 game vs Ravens (Sep 20); status for Week 3 vs Raiders unclear but injury occurred within 7 days | NO | Kelvin Banks Jr. | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LT carted off with ankle injury in Week 1; status for Week 2 vs Raiders unclear but injury occurred within 7 days | NO | Kelvin Banks | 0.65 | -1.3 | helped -0.017 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Tight end was 'very close' to playing in Week 2; expected to return for Week 3 vs Saints | LV | Brock Bowers | 0.75 | -1.1 | helped -0.015 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for motivation Raiders receiver playing emotional game in New Orleans where his brother was killed | LV | Jack Bech | 0.65 | -1.0 | helped -0.013 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key_player_out Saints ruled out two players for Sunday vs Raiders (specific names not stated in available excerpt) | NO | 0.30 | -0.6 | helped -0.008 |
Quick answers
Who won Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints?
The Las Vegas Raiders beat the New Orleans Saints 35-27 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints?
niftiNFL picks the New Orleans Saints, 63% to win, with a projected score of Las Vegas Raiders 20, New Orleans Saints 24. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the New Orleans Saints; the final was Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27.