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Bengals at Steelers
CIN
the pick · 62% to win (model 59%, analyst +2.8)
25–21
projected · CIN by 3.8 · total 46.3
CIN −3.5
final market margin · agrees
27–30
final · ✕
ATS ✕ · O/U ✓
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +6.8 · total error +10.7
Why Cincinnati Bengals
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Joe Burrow vs Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 67.0°F, wind 14.0 mph, Sunny.
CIN has the QB edge (+8); PIT at home (-8); CIN in better form (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | PIT win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 50% | 48% | +1.9 | CIN | -0.5 |
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 50% | 48% | +1.9 | CIN | -0.5 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 50% | 48% | +1.9 | CIN | -0.5 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 50% | 48% | +1.9 | CIN | -0.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 50% | 48% | +1.9 | CIN | -0.5 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 48% | 48% | +0.0 | CIN | -0.5 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 48% | 48% | +0.0 | CIN | -0.5 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 48% | 48% | +0.0 | CIN | -0.5 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 48% | 48% | +0.0 | CIN | -0.5 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | CIN | -3.1 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | CIN | -3.1 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | CIN | -3.1 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | CIN | -3.1 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | CIN | -3.1 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | CIN | -3.1 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 41% | 41% | +0.0 | CIN | -3.1 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.3 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.3 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.3 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.3 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.3 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.3 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.3 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 42% | 41% | +1.1 | CIN | -2.8 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 42% | 41% | +1.1 | CIN | -2.8 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 42% | 41% | +1.1 | CIN | -2.8 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 42% | 41% | +1.1 | CIN | -2.8 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 42% | 41% | +1.1 | CIN | -2.8 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 42% | 41% | +1.1 | CIN | -2.8 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 42% | 41% | +1.1 | CIN | -2.8 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 42% | 41% | +1.1 | CIN | -2.7 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 42% | 41% | +1.1 | CIN | -2.7 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 42% | 41% | +1.1 | CIN | -2.7 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.2 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.2 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.2 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.2 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.2 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.2 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -0.8 | CIN | -3.2 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 38% | 41% | -2.8 | CIN | -3.8 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (PIT) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44% (-4.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 41 |
| Kalshi | 45% | 38% | 41 |
| DraftKings | 40% (-3.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 21 |
| nflverse price | 45% (-2.5) | 38% (-3.5) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 50% | 38% (-3.8) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback inactive vs Bengals due to contract impasse; will not play Week 3 | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR ruled out with foot injury for Week 2 vs. Patriots; will miss Week 3 matchup vs. Bengals | PIT | Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out for Week 2 vs. Bengals | CIN | Jadeveon Clowney | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.022 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil CB rejected $27M contract extension, has not played in first two games, at prices with team since offseason | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.85 | -0.8 | hurt +0.010 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Won't play in Week 3 | PIT | Rico Dowdle | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.023 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Placed on IR with torn ligament in thumb | CIN | Andrei Iosivas | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Headed to IR with torn ligament in thumb | CIN | Andrei Iosivas | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.022 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Offensive lineman suffers bone break | PIT | Spencer Anderson | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.020 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') CB unlikely to play in Week 3; hasn't played this season despite limited practice participation | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') RB exited Week 2 game vs. Patriots with toe injury; status for Week 3 vs. Bengals unclear | PIT | Rico Dowdle | 0.75 | -1.5 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') OT seen in walking boot after Week 2 loss to Patriots; injury status unclear but suggests potential availability concern | PIT | Troy Fautanu | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') DL exited Week 2 vs Patriots with shoulder injury; status for Week 3 unclear | PIT | Dre'Mont Jones | 0.60 | -1.2 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Cornerback expected to return Week 3 vs. Cincinnati after contract/availability issue | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.013 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil CB rejected $27M contract extension, has not played in first two games, at prices with team since offseason | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.75 | -0.8 | hurt +0.009 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Steelers offense struggled significantly in Week 2 loss to Patriots (20-3); Aaron Rodgers acknowledged not playing 'winning football' | PIT | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.005 |
Quick answers
Who won Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers?
The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Cincinnati Bengals 30-27 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers?
niftiNFL picks the Cincinnati Bengals, 62% to win, with a projected score of Cincinnati Bengals 25, Pittsburgh Steelers 21. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Cincinnati Bengals; the final was Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30.