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Eagles at Bears
PHI
the pick · 66% to win (model 56%, analyst +10.0)
25–21
projected · PHI by 3.9 · total 46.0
PHI −3.5
final market margin · agrees
7–27
final · ✕
ATS ✕ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error +23.9 · total error -12.0
Why Philadelphia Eagles
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Jalen Hurts vs Caleb Williams (reported starter · feed lists Case Keenum) at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Clear.
PHI has the QB edge (+14); CHI at home (-8); PHI is the better team (+3)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | CHI win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 54% | 54% | +0.0 | CHI | +1.6 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 54% | 54% | +0.0 | CHI | +1.6 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 54% | 54% | +0.0 | CHI | +1.6 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | PHI | -1.5 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 44% | 42% | +1.9 | PHI | -1.0 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 44% | 42% | +1.9 | PHI | -1.0 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 39% | 42% | -2.6 | PHI | -2.2 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 39% | 42% | -2.6 | PHI | -2.2 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 39% | 42% | -2.6 | PHI | -2.2 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 39% | 42% | -2.7 | PHI | -2.3 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 39% | 42% | -2.7 | PHI | -2.3 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 39% | 42% | -2.7 | PHI | -2.3 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 37% | 42% | -4.6 | PHI | -2.8 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.5 | PHI | -3.2 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.5 | PHI | -3.2 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.5 | PHI | -3.2 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.5 | PHI | -3.2 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.4 | PHI | -3.2 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.4 | PHI | -3.2 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.4 | PHI | -3.2 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.4 | PHI | -3.2 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.4 | PHI | -3.2 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.4 | PHI | -3.2 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.4 | PHI | -3.2 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.0 | PHI | -3.1 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.0 | PHI | -3.1 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.0 | PHI | -3.1 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 36% | 42% | -6.0 | PHI | -3.1 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 32% | 42% | -10.0 | PHI | -4.3 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 33% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -4.0 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 33% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -4.0 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 33% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -4.0 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 33% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -4.0 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 33% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -4.0 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 33% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -4.0 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 33% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -4.0 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 34% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -3.9 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 34% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -3.9 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 34% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -3.9 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 34% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -3.9 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 34% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -3.9 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 34% | 43% | -10.0 | PHI | -3.9 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (CHI) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 32% (+2.5) | 36% (-3.5) | 42 |
| Kalshi | 34% | 36% | 42 |
| DraftKings | 37% (-4.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 31 |
| nflverse price | 36% (-4.5) | 36% (-3.5) | 42 |
| niftiNFL | 54% | 34% (-3.9) | 42 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Caleb Williams ruled out; Tyson Bagent questionable; Case Keenum likely starter | CHI | 0.92 | -5.5 | hurt +0.064 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Hamstring injury in Week 2; week-to-week status, may miss time but not ruled out for Week 3 | CHI | Caleb Williams | 0.75 | -4.5 | hurt +0.052 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report QB non-participant in practice Thursday and Friday; will not play Monday | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 0.80 | -1.6 | hurt +0.018 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Case Keenum will start at QB for Bears; Tyson Bagent cleared concussion protocol but insufficient prep time | CHI | Case Keenum | 0.95 | -5.7 | hurt +0.066 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tyson Bagent (named starter) placed in concussion protocol; Case Keenum likely to start Week 3 | CHI | 0.95 | -5.7 | hurt +0.066 | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Caleb Williams suffered hamstring injury in Week 2; Tyson Bagent is named starter but Williams' status for Week 3 uncertain: reports indicate he 'could play' but is 'week-to-week' and 'will likely miss some time' | CHI | Caleb Williams | 0.75 | -4.5 | hurt +0.052 |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Bagent cleared from concussion protocol, returned to practice Saturday; could start instead of Case Keenum | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 0.65 | +3.9 | helped -0.043 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report TE ruled out for Week 3 vs Bears | PHI | Dallas Goedert | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.021 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report QB out of practice Thursday and Friday; not expected to play Monday vs Eagles | CHI | Caleb Williams | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.019 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') In concussion protocol; estimated non-participant Thursday | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 0.80 | -1.6 | hurt +0.018 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Right hamstring injury suffered Week 2 vs Vikings; status uncertain for Week 3 | CHI | Caleb Williams | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.015 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Tight end elevated for Monday night game; first appearance since Week 6 of 2021 season | PHI | Zach Ertz | 0.85 | -1.3 | hurt +0.014 |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Outside linebacker active for Monday Night Football; making 2026 debut | PHI | Jonathan Greenard | 0.80 | -1.2 | hurt +0.014 |
Quick answers
Who won Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears?
The Chicago Bears beat the Philadelphia Eagles 27-7 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears?
niftiNFL picks the Philadelphia Eagles, 66% to win, with a projected score of Philadelphia Eagles 25, Chicago Bears 21. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
No. The pick was the Philadelphia Eagles; the final was Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27.