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Cardinals at 49ers
SF
the pick · 79% to win (model 81%, analyst -1.8)
19–29
projected · SF by 10.9 · total 48.0
SF −7.5
final market margin · agrees
30–36
final · ✓
ATS ✕ · O/U ✕
market margin and total, market's final price · margin error -4.9 · total error +18.0
Why San Francisco 49ers
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Jacoby Brissett vs Brock Purdy at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 68.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Sunny.
SF is the better team (+8); SF has the QB edge (+7); SF in better form (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | SF win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:02 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +8.5 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +8.5 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +8.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +8.5 |
| Sun 3:03 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +8.5 |
| Sun 4:12 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.9 | SF | +8.5 |
| Sun 7:02 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.8 | SF | +8.5 |
| Sun 8:02 PM ET | 75% | 77% | -1.8 | SF | +8.5 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 80% | 82% | -1.8 | SF | +11.5 |
| Mon 7:03 AM ET | 80% | 82% | -1.8 | SF | +11.5 |
| Mon 11:02 AM ET | 80% | 82% | -1.8 | SF | +11.5 |
| Mon 3:02 PM ET | 80% | 82% | -1.8 | SF | +11.5 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 80% | 82% | -1.8 | SF | +11.5 |
| Mon 8:03 PM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +11.0 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Tue 7:02 AM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Tue 3:03 PM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 80% | 82% | -1.8 | SF | +11.4 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 80% | 82% | -1.8 | SF | +11.4 |
| Thu 7:03 AM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Thu 3:01 PM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Thu 7:02 PM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Thu 8:01 PM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.6 | SF | +10.9 |
| Fri 12:01 AM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.6 | SF | +10.9 |
| Fri 7:02 AM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Fri 11:02 AM ET | 78% | 82% | -3.7 | SF | +10.9 |
| Fri 3:03 PM ET | 78% | 82% | -4.0 | SF | +10.8 |
| Fri 7:02 PM ET | 78% | 82% | -4.0 | SF | +10.8 |
| Sat 7:03 AM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.8 | SF | +10.9 |
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.8 | SF | +10.9 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.8 | SF | +10.9 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.8 | SF | +10.9 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.8 | SF | +10.9 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.8 | SF | +10.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.8 | SF | +10.9 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.8 | SF | +10.9 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (SF) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 80% (+14.5) | 78% (+7.5) | 41 |
| Kalshi | 80% | 78% | 41 |
| DraftKings | 74% (+8.5) | 71% (+7.5) | 22 |
| nflverse price | 79% (+8.5) | 77% (+7.5) | 39 |
| niftiNFL | 75% | 79% (+10.9) | 41 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback placed on injured reserve | ARI | Will Johnson | 0.95 | +1.9 | helped -0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on injured reserve | SF | C.J. West | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report TE tore MCL in Week 2 vs Dolphins, out for season | SF | Jake Tonges | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for multiple weeks with pulled calf; will not play Sunday | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report WR ruled out with high ankle sprain, expected to miss 3-6 weeks | SF | Demarcus Robinson | 0.95 | -1.9 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Sunday | SF | Romello Height | 0.90 | -1.8 | hurt +0.008 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Top draft pick moved to Injured Reserve | SF | De'Zhaun Stribling | 0.85 | -1.7 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Rookie suffered injury, potentially missing more than a month | SF | Romello Height | 0.80 | -1.6 | hurt +0.007 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') CB Will Johnson has a neck injury that could end his season | ARI | Will Johnson | 0.75 | +1.5 | helped -0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR carted off with ankle injury vs Dolphins on 9/20; status for Cardinals game unclear but injury occurred this week | SF | Demarcus Robinson | 0.65 | -1.3 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR expected to play Sunday per latest report (Sep 27), contradicting earlier questionable status; model may not have updated | SF | Mike Evans | 0.60 | +1.2 | helped -0.004 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Added to injury report Thursday with calf issue; status unclear for Sunday | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.60 | -1.2 | hurt +0.005 |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Expected to play Sunday after being questionable with hip injury | SF | Mike Evans | 0.75 | +1.1 | helped -0.004 |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for turmoil QB Brissett publicly criticized WR Michael Wilson and questioned Marvin Harrison Jr. usage; trade speculation on Harrison Jr. | ARI | 0.75 | +0.8 | helped -0.003 | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Added to injury report with calf issue; status unclear for Sunday | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.75 | -0.4 | hurt +0.001 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other 49ers signed veteran WR Brandin Cooks to practice squad to address WR injuries | SF | 0.75 | +0.4 | helped -0.001 |
Quick answers
Who won Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers?
The San Francisco 49ers beat the Arizona Cardinals 36-30 in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers?
niftiNFL picks the San Francisco 49ers, 79% to win, with a projected score of Arizona Cardinals 19, San Francisco 49ers 29. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.
Was the niftiNFL pick right?
Yes. The pick was the San Francisco 49ers; the final was Arizona Cardinals 30, San Francisco 49ers 36.