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Cowboys at Texans
HOU
the pick · 62% to win (model 59%, analyst +3.0)
23–26
projected · HOU by 2.9 · total 49.0
HOU −3
final market margin · agrees
Sun 1:00 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Houston Texans
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Dak Prescott vs C.J. Stroud at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 80.0°F, wind 10.0 mph, Chance Showers And Thunderstorms.
HOU is the better team (+10); DAL has the QB edge (-9); HOU at home (+8)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | HOU win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.4 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.4 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.4 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.4 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.4 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.4 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.4 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.4 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 60% | 60% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.4 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 59% | 59% | +0.0 | HOU | +2.1 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 60% | 59% | +1.1 | HOU | +2.4 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 60% | 59% | +1.1 | HOU | +2.4 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 61% | 59% | +2.8 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 62% | 59% | +3.0 | HOU | +2.9 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (HOU) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 57% (+2.5) | 60% (+2.5) | 26 |
| Kalshi | 57% | 60% | 26 |
| DraftKings | 57% (+2.5) | 59% (+3.0) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 59% (+3.0) | 59% (+3.0) | 24 |
| niftiNFL | 60% | 62% (+2.9) | 26 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive lineman placed on injured reserve Wednesday | HOU | Mario Edwards | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive tackle placed on injured reserve Wednesday | DAL | Jonathan Bullard | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Safety placed on injured reserve Wednesday | DAL | Jalen Thompson | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Cowboys lost heartbreaking last-second game to Ravens in Brazil with clock management mistakes; facing short week with emotional toll | DAL | 0.70 | +1.1 | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Texans WR Nico Collins unavailable in Week 3; status for Week 4 vs Cowboys unclear | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.65 | -1.3 | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Acquired via trade from Steelers on Oct 1; has chance to play Sunday after missing first 3 weeks | DAL | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.70 | -1.1 | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Returns to Texans practice after injury absence | HOU | Nico Collins | 0.70 | +1.1 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Cowboys secondary significantly depleted with multiple injuries | DAL | 0.75 | +0.4 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Dallas Cowboys play the Houston Texans?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Houston Texans' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans?
niftiNFL picks the Houston Texans, 62% to win, with a projected score of Dallas Cowboys 23, Houston Texans 26. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.