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Chargers at Seahawks
SEA
the pick · 74% to win (model 76%, analyst -1.7)
17–25
projected · SEA by 8.6 · total 42.1
SEA −7
final market margin · agrees
Sun 4:25 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Seattle Seahawks
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Justin Herbert vs Drew Lock at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
SEA is the better team (+14); SEA in better form (+7); SEA at home (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | SEA win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 81% | 81% | +0.0 | SEA | +11.3 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 81% | 81% | +0.0 | SEA | +11.3 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 81% | 81% | +0.0 | SEA | +11.3 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 81% | 81% | +0.0 | SEA | +11.3 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 81% | 81% | +0.0 | SEA | +11.3 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 81% | 81% | +0.0 | SEA | +11.3 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 80% | 81% | -1.7 | SEA | +10.8 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 80% | 81% | -1.7 | SEA | +10.8 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.5 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.5 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.5 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.5 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.5 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.5 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.6 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.6 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.6 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.6 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.6 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.6 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.6 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.6 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.6 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.6 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 74% | 76% | -1.7 | SEA | +8.6 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (SEA) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 74% (+6.5) | 74% (+6.5) | 25 |
| Kalshi | 74% | 76% | 25 |
| DraftKings | 70% (+7.0) | 70% (+7.0) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 71% (+6.5) | 76% (+7.0) | 23 |
| niftiNFL | 81% | 74% (+8.6) | 25 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Offensive lineman placed on injured reserve Saturday | LAC | Trey Pipkins III | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Starting safety out against Commanders; practice squad replacement called up | SEA | Ty Okada | 0.90 | -1.8 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Starting safety out against Commanders; practice squad replacement called up | SEA | Julian Love | 0.90 | -1.8 | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Sam Darnold cleared and set to start for Seahawks in Week 3 after glute/hip injury; Drew Lock was the named starter | SEA | Sam Darnold | 0.85 | +5.1 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Los Angeles Chargers play the Seattle Seahawks?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 4:25 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Seattle Seahawks' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks?
niftiNFL picks the Seattle Seahawks, 74% to win, with a projected score of Los Angeles Chargers 17, Seattle Seahawks 25. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.