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Jaguars at Bengals
JAX
the pick · 52% to win (model 50%, analyst +2.3)
25–24
projected · JAX by 1.1 · total 48.6
CIN −2.5
final market margin · we differ
Sun 1:00 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Jacksonville Jaguars
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Trevor Lawrence vs Joe Burrow at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 64.0°F, wind 2.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
CIN at home (-8); JAX is the better team (+7); JAX in better form (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | CIN win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | CIN | +2.5 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | CIN | +2.5 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | CIN | +2.5 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | CIN | +2.5 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | CIN | +2.5 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | CIN | +2.5 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | CIN | +2.5 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | CIN | +2.5 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 56% | 56% | +0.0 | CIN | +2.5 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | CIN | +0.5 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | CIN | +0.5 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | CIN | +0.5 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | CIN | +0.5 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | CIN | +0.5 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | CIN | +0.5 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | CIN | +0.5 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | JAX | -0.5 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | JAX | -0.5 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | JAX | -0.5 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 48% | 50% | -1.9 | JAX | -1.0 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 48% | 50% | -1.9 | JAX | -1.0 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 48% | 50% | -1.9 | JAX | -1.0 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 48% | 50% | -2.3 | JAX | -1.1 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 48% | 50% | -2.3 | JAX | -1.1 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 48% | 50% | -2.3 | JAX | -1.1 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 48% | 50% | -2.3 | JAX | -1.1 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (CIN) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 58% (+2.5) | 57% (+2.5) | 26 |
| Kalshi | 58% | 57% | 26 |
| DraftKings | 57% (+2.5) | 57% (+2.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 60% (+3.0) | 56% (+2.5) | 24 |
| niftiNFL | 56% | 48% (-1.1) | 26 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report CB placed on IR (announced Sep 29) | CIN | Jalen Davis | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Moved to slot cornerback role amid injury shakeup (announced Sep 30) | CIN | Dax Hill | 0.80 | -0.4 | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out WR Mitchell Tinsley being brought back to Bengals this week after being away | CIN | Mitchell Tinsley | 0.85 | +1.3 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Jacksonville Jaguars play the Cincinnati Bengals?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Cincinnati Bengals' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals?
niftiNFL picks the Jacksonville Jaguars, 52% to win, with a projected score of Jacksonville Jaguars 25, Cincinnati Bengals 24. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.