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Rams at Eagles
LA
the pick · 51% to win (model 55%, analyst -4.0)
24–24
projected · LA by 0.5 · total 48.1
LA −3
final market margin · agrees
Sun 1:00 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Los Angeles Rams
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Matthew Stafford vs Jalen Hurts at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 65.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers.
PHI at home (-8); LA is the better team (+7); LA has the QB edge (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | PHI win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 47% | 47% | +0.0 | LA | -0.7 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 47% | 47% | +0.0 | LA | -0.7 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 47% | 47% | +0.0 | LA | -0.7 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 47% | 47% | +0.0 | LA | -0.7 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 49% | 47% | +1.9 | LA | -0.5 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 49% | 47% | +1.9 | LA | -0.5 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 49% | 47% | +1.9 | LA | -0.5 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 49% | 47% | +1.9 | LA | -0.5 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 49% | 47% | +1.9 | LA | -0.5 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | PHI | +0.5 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | PHI | +0.5 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | PHI | +0.5 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | PHI | +0.5 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | PHI | +0.5 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 51% | 49% | +1.9 | PHI | +0.5 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 48% | 45% | +3.2 | LA | -0.5 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 48% | 45% | +3.2 | LA | -0.5 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 49% | 45% | +3.6 | LA | -0.5 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 49% | 45% | +3.6 | LA | -0.5 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 49% | 45% | +3.6 | LA | -0.5 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 49% | 45% | +3.6 | LA | -0.5 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 49% | 45% | +3.6 | LA | -0.5 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 49% | 45% | +3.6 | LA | -0.5 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 49% | 45% | +3.6 | LA | -0.5 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 49% | 45% | +4.0 | LA | -0.5 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 49% | 45% | +4.0 | LA | -0.5 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (PHI) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 43% (-1.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 26 |
| Kalshi | 43% | 40% | 26 |
| DraftKings | 41% (-3.0) | 41% (-3.0) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 45% (-1.5) | 41% (-3.0) | 23 |
| niftiNFL | 47% | 49% (-0.5) | 26 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out for second consecutive game; expected to miss up to 6 weeks following surgery | LA | Myles Garrett | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Cornerback suffered dislocated shoulder in Week 3; may be back in October but out for Week 4 vs Eagles | LA | Jaylen Watson | 0.85 | +1.7 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive tackle ruled out; sits out of practice with sore back | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.75 | +1.5 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback suffered dislocated shoulder in Week 3; may return in October but status uncertain for Week 4 vs Eagles | LA | Jaylen Watson | 0.75 | +1.5 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Underwent concussion evaluation during Monday night loss to Bears; status for Sunday unclear pending protocol clearance | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.65 | -1.3 | pending |
| key starter returning declined: soft status (limited/questionable/cleared) Expected to play Sunday after missing two games with hip injury | LA | Puka Nacua | 0.85 | -1.3 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end injured during Sunday's loss to Broncos; status unclear but reported as injured this week | LA | Terrance Ferguson | 0.60 | +1.2 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Tight end injured during Sunday's loss to Broncos; status unclear but reported as injured this week | LA | Colby Parkinson | 0.60 | +1.2 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.35 below floor for key_player_out Sore back, day-to-day status; missed practice Wednesday | LA | Aaron Donald | 0.35 | +0.7 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other QB underwent concussion evaluation during MNF game vs Bears; cleared to play but evaluation protocol may affect availability/performance this week | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 0.65 | -0.3 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.55 below floor for other Odell Beckham Jr. released by Giants; potential landing spot includes Rams as free agent addition | LA | 0.55 | -0.3 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Los Angeles Rams play the Philadelphia Eagles?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Philadelphia Eagles' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles?
niftiNFL picks the Los Angeles Rams, 51% to win, with a projected score of Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 24. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.