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Broncos at 49ers
SF
the pick · 63% to win (model 65%, analyst -1.5)
22–27
projected · SF by 4.7 · total 48.8
SF −3
final market margin · agrees
Sun 4:25 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why San Francisco 49ers
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Bo Nix vs Brock Purdy at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 86.0°F, wind 1.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
SF has the QB edge (+9); SF at home (+7); DEN has the more efficient offense (-4)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | SF win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | SF | +4.8 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | SF | +4.8 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | SF | +4.8 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | SF | +4.8 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 64% | 64% | +0.0 | SF | +5.3 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 64% | 64% | +0.0 | SF | +5.3 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | SF | +4.8 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | SF | +4.8 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 62% | 64% | -1.9 | SF | +4.6 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.9 | SF | +4.6 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.9 | SF | +4.6 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.9 | SF | +4.6 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.9 | SF | +4.6 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.9 | SF | +4.6 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.9 | SF | +4.6 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.9 | SF | +4.6 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.9 | SF | +4.6 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.5 | SF | +4.7 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.5 | SF | +4.7 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.5 | SF | +4.7 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.5 | SF | +4.7 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.5 | SF | +4.7 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.5 | SF | +4.7 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.5 | SF | +4.7 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 63% | 65% | -1.5 | SF | +4.7 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (SF) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 59% (+4.5) | 56% (+2.5) | 25 |
| Kalshi | 60% | 57% | 25 |
| DraftKings | 59% (+3.0) | 59% (+3.0) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 61% (+3.0) | 57% (+3.0) | 22 |
| niftiNFL | 62% | 63% (+4.7) | 25 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out with rib injury suffered vs Cardinals on Sep 27 | SF | Mike Evans | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Defensive end out for Sunday with calf injury, expected to miss more time | SF | Nick Bosa | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie RB placed on IR with high ankle sprain | DEN | Jonah Coleman | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) DE signed to practice squad Monday to address D-line injuries | SF | Matt Judon | 0.80 | +0.4 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left game on cart vs Cardinals Week 3; status unclear for Week 4 | SF | Trent Williams | 0.75 | -1.5 | pending |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for coaching_change Sean Payton handed away playcalling duties | DEN | 0.65 | +1.3 | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') 49ers WR injuries mentioned; Dante Pettis signed to practice squad due to WR depth issues | SF | 0.60 | -1.2 | pending | |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out DE practice window opened this week; eligible to make season debut in Week 5 | SF | Mykel Williams | 0.75 | +1.1 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Won't practice Wednesday | SF | Dre Greenlaw | 0.55 | -1.1 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.45 below floor for key_player_out WR considered day-to-day with rib injury after leaving Sunday's game on cart; status unclear for Week 4 | SF | Mike Evans | 0.45 | -0.9 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other 49ers signed DE Matt Judon to practice squad Monday due to D-line injuries; Mykel Williams practice window opening this week | SF | 0.75 | +0.4 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Denver Broncos play the San Francisco 49ers?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 4:25 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the San Francisco 49ers' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers?
niftiNFL picks the San Francisco 49ers, 63% to win, with a projected score of Denver Broncos 22, San Francisco 49ers 27. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.