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Lions at Panthers
DET
the pick · 66% to win (model 62%, analyst +4.0)
27–22
projected · DET by 4.4 · total 49.5
DET −3.5
final market margin · agrees
Sun 8:20 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Detroit Lions
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Jared Goff vs Bryce Young at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 66.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers.
DET has the QB edge (+12); DET is the better team (+11); CAR at home (-7)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | CAR win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | DET | -1.7 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | DET | -1.7 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | DET | -1.7 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | DET | -1.7 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | DET | -1.7 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | DET | -1.7 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | DET | -1.7 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.0 | DET | -3.3 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.0 | DET | -3.3 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.0 | DET | -3.3 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | DET | -3.8 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | DET | -3.8 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | DET | -3.8 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | DET | -3.8 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | DET | -3.8 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | DET | -3.8 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | DET | -3.8 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | DET | -3.8 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | DET | -3.8 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 34% | 38% | -3.7 | DET | -4.3 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 34% | 38% | -4.0 | DET | -4.4 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 34% | 38% | -4.0 | DET | -4.4 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 34% | 38% | -4.0 | DET | -4.4 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 34% | 38% | -4.0 | DET | -4.4 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (CAR) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 43% (+2.5) | 36% (-3.5) | 24 |
| Kalshi | 44% | 36% | 24 |
| DraftKings | 40% (-3.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 42% (-3.0) | 38% (-3.5) | 22 |
| niftiNFL | 42% | 34% (-4.4) | 24 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with groin injury, will miss extended time | CAR | Mike Jackson | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Placed on IR with torn quad, will miss significant time | CAR | Jaycee Horn | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report G ruled out at least Week 4 with UCL injury | CAR | Damien Lewis | 0.92 | -1.8 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting offensive lineman out at least Week 4 with UCL injury | CAR | Damien Lewis | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting QB sore with lower body injury, undergoing tests this week | CAR | Bryce Young | 0.70 | -1.4 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other QB sore with lower body injury, undergoing tests this week | CAR | Bryce Young | 0.75 | -0.4 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Detroit Lions play the Carolina Panthers?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 8:20 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Carolina Panthers' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers?
niftiNFL picks the Detroit Lions, 66% to win, with a projected score of Detroit Lions 27, Carolina Panthers 22. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.