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Titans at Ravens
BAL
the pick · 86% to win (model 87%, analyst -0.4)
16–30
projected · BAL by 14.2 · total 45.3
BAL −11.5
final market margin · agrees
Sun 1:00 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Baltimore Ravens
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Cam Ward vs Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 63.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Chance Rain Showers.
BAL is the better team (+10); BAL has the QB edge (+8); BAL at home (+4)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | BAL win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 86% | 86% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 86% | 86% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 86% | 86% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 86% | 86% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 86% | 86% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 86% | 86% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 86% | 86% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 86% | 86% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 86% | 86% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 87% | 87% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 87% | 87% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 87% | 87% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 87% | 87% | +0.0 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 83% | 87% | -3.4 | BAL | +13.3 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 83% | 87% | -3.4 | BAL | +13.3 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 83% | 87% | -3.4 | BAL | +13.3 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 83% | 87% | -3.4 | BAL | +13.3 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 83% | 87% | -3.4 | BAL | +13.3 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 83% | 87% | -3.4 | BAL | +13.3 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 87% | 87% | +0.2 | BAL | +14.4 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 87% | 87% | +0.2 | BAL | +14.4 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 87% | 87% | -0.1 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 87% | 87% | +0.1 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 87% | 87% | +0.1 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 87% | 87% | +0.1 | BAL | +14.3 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 86% | 87% | -0.4 | BAL | +14.2 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (BAL) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 84% (+10.5) | 86% (+10.5) | 26 |
| Kalshi | 84% | 86% | 26 |
| DraftKings | 80% (+11.5) | 80% (+11.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 82% (+10.5) | 84% (+11.5) | 24 |
| niftiNFL | 86% | 86% (+14.2) | 26 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Center ruled out with fractured fibula, out for extended period | BAL | Jovaughn Gwyn | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Offensive lineman placed on injured reserve | TEN | Jackson Slater | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Offensive lineman placed on injured reserve | TEN | Fernando Carmona | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Center expected to miss extended time with injury from Week 3 game | BAL | Ethan Pocic | 0.90 | -1.8 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Fractured fibula, out for extended period | BAL | Jovaughn Gwyn | 0.95 | -0.5 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back did not practice Wednesday; status unclear but practice absence in week of game | TEN | Tyjae Spears | 0.55 | +1.1 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Running back did not practice Wednesday; status unclear but practice absence in week of game | TEN | Tony Pollard | 0.55 | +1.1 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Nor'easter weather threatens Giants-Titans game on East Coast in Week 3 | TEN | 0.75 | +0.4 | pending | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for other Did not practice Wednesday; status unclear for Sunday | TEN | Tyjae Spears | 0.60 | +0.3 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for other Did not practice Wednesday; status unclear for Sunday | TEN | Tony Pollard | 0.60 | +0.3 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Tennessee Titans play the Baltimore Ravens?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Baltimore Ravens' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens?
niftiNFL picks the Baltimore Ravens, 86% to win, with a projected score of Tennessee Titans 16, Baltimore Ravens 30. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.