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Chiefs at Raiders
KC
the pick · 64% to win (model 62%, analyst +1.9)
26–21
projected · KC by 4.7 · total 47.0
KC −4.5
final market margin · agrees
Sun 4:25 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Kansas City Chiefs
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Patrick Mahomes vs Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
KC is the better team (+12); LV at home (-7); KC has the QB edge (+5)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | LV win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.0 | KC | -3.9 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.0 | KC | -3.9 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.0 | KC | -3.9 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.0 | KC | -3.9 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.0 | KC | -3.9 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.0 | KC | -3.9 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 38% | 38% | +0.0 | KC | -3.9 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 37% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.4 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 36% | 38% | -1.9 | KC | -4.7 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (LV) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 32% (-5.5) | 34% (-4.5) | 25 |
| Kalshi | 31% | 35% | 25 |
| DraftKings | 37% (-4.5) | 37% (-4.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 31% (-6.0) | 34% (-4.5) | 23 |
| niftiNFL | 38% | 36% (-4.7) | 25 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on IR | LV | Jack Bech | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR broke forearm in Week 3 win, headed to injured reserve | LV | Jack Bech | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Starting left tackle unavailable; Andy Reid has not provided return timeline as of Sept 29 | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.85 | +1.7 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Kansas City Chiefs play the Las Vegas Raiders?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 4:25 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Las Vegas Raiders' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders?
niftiNFL picks the Kansas City Chiefs, 64% to win, with a projected score of Kansas City Chiefs 26, Las Vegas Raiders 21. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.