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Dolphins at Vikings
MIN
the pick · 80% to win (model 81%, analyst -1.5)
16–28
projected · MIN by 11.8 · total 43.8
MIN −10.5
final market margin · agrees
Sun 4:05 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Minnesota Vikings
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Malik Willis vs Kyler Murray at quarterback.
MIN is the better team (+11); MIN in better form (+7); MIN at home (+5)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | MIN win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | MIN | +9.8 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | MIN | +9.8 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | MIN | +9.8 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | MIN | +9.8 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 76% | 74% | +1.9 | MIN | +10.3 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 76% | 74% | +1.9 | MIN | +10.3 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.0 | MIN | +9.8 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 74% | 74% | +0.6 | MIN | +10.0 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 81% | 81% | +0.0 | MIN | +12.2 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 81% | 81% | +0.0 | MIN | +12.2 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 80% | 81% | -1.6 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 80% | 81% | -1.7 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.9 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.9 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.9 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.9 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.9 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.8 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.9 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.9 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.9 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.8 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.9 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 79% | 81% | -1.9 | MIN | +11.7 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 80% | 81% | -1.5 | MIN | +11.8 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (MIN) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 85% (+10.5) | 84% (+10.5) | 25 |
| Kalshi | 83% | 84% | 25 |
| DraftKings | 78% (+10.5) | 78% (+10.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 84% (+10.5) | 82% (+10.5) | 23 |
| niftiNFL | 74% | 80% (+11.8) | 25 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Running back placed on injured reserve with torn ACL; season over | MIA | De'Von Achane | 1.00 | +2.0 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Tight end placed on injured reserve with torn biceps | MIN | Josh Oliver | 1.00 | -2.0 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Ruled out with ankle injury from Week 3 game vs Buccaneers | MIN | Justin Jefferson | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Brian Flores' Vikings defense blitzing at historic 71% rate (nearly 5 pass rushers per snap) facing former team Miami | MIN | 0.85 | +0.4 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Miami Dolphins play the Minnesota Vikings?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 4:05 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Minnesota Vikings' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings?
niftiNFL picks the Minnesota Vikings, 80% to win, with a projected score of Miami Dolphins 16, Minnesota Vikings 28. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.