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Packers at Buccaneers
GB
the pick · 58% to win (model 55%, analyst +3.7)
24–23
projected · GB by 1.5 · total 46.9
GB −3.5
final market margin · agrees
Sun 1:00 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Green Bay Packers
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Jordan Love vs Jalon Daniels at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 86.0°F, wind 7.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
GB has the QB edge (+16); TB at home (-8); TB has the more efficient offense (-4)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | TB win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 52% | 55% | -3.8 | TB | +1.0 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 52% | 55% | -3.8 | TB | +1.0 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 52% | 55% | -3.8 | TB | +1.0 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 52% | 55% | -3.8 | TB | +1.0 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 52% | 55% | -3.8 | TB | +1.0 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 52% | 55% | -3.8 | TB | +1.0 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 52% | 55% | -3.8 | TB | +1.0 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 52% | 55% | -3.8 | TB | +1.0 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 52% | 55% | -3.8 | TB | +1.0 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 49% | 53% | -3.8 | GB | -0.5 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 49% | 53% | -3.8 | GB | -0.5 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 49% | 53% | -3.8 | GB | -0.5 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 49% | 53% | -3.8 | GB | -0.5 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 51% | 53% | -1.9 | TB | +0.9 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 51% | 53% | -1.9 | TB | +0.9 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 51% | 53% | -1.9 | TB | +0.9 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 50% | 53% | -3.7 | GB | -0.5 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 50% | 53% | -3.7 | GB | -0.5 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 50% | 53% | -3.7 | GB | -0.5 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 42% | 45% | -3.7 | GB | -1.5 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 45% | 45% | -0.1 | GB | -0.5 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 42% | 45% | -3.8 | GB | -1.6 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 43% | 45% | -1.9 | GB | -1.0 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 42% | 45% | -3.7 | GB | -1.5 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 38% | 45% | -7.6 | GB | -2.6 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 42% | 45% | -3.7 | GB | -1.5 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (TB) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 48% (-1.5) | 38% (-3.5) | 26 |
| Kalshi | 48% | 38% | 26 |
| DraftKings | 40% (-3.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 48% (-1.5) | 38% (-3.5) | 23 |
| niftiNFL | 52% | 42% (-1.5) | 26 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Baker Mayfield (starting QB) dislocated right thumb vs Minnesota, will not play Sunday; Jalon Daniels confirmed as starter | TB | 0.95 | -5.7 | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on injured reserve for season-ending neck surgery | GB | Jayden Reed | 0.99 | +2.0 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report WR placed on injured reserve | TB | Jalen McMillan | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Right tackle placed on injured reserve Monday | GB | Zach Bako-Bewele | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie defensive starter ruled out for Buccaneers vs Vikings | TB | Josiah Trotter | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Rookie defensive starter ruled out for Buccaneers vs Vikings | TB | Rueben Bain | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Undrafted rookie Jalen Daniels to start for Buccaneers; Baker Mayfield out minimum three weeks with thumb dislocation | TB | Jalen Daniels | 0.99 | -5.9 | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Baker Mayfield out minimum 3 weeks with thumb dislocation; undrafted rookie Daniels to start vs. Green Bay | TB | Jalon Daniels | 0.95 | -5.7 | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Baker Mayfield out minimum 3 weeks with thumb dislocation; Jalen Daniels (rookie) expected to start | TB | 0.95 | -5.7 | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Dislocated thumb in Week 3 game vs Vikings; MRI scheduled to determine return timeline | TB | Baker Mayfield | 0.85 | -1.7 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') WR had MRI on left knee after aggravating injury in Week 3; status unclear | TB | Jalen McMillan | 0.65 | -1.3 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Green Bay Packers play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
niftiNFL picks the Green Bay Packers, 58% to win, with a projected score of Green Bay Packers 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.