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Colts at Commanders
IND
the pick · 60% to win (model 59%, analyst +1.1)
24–22
projected · IND by 3.0 · total 46.0
IND −3.5
final market margin · agrees
Sun 9:30 AM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Indianapolis Colts
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Daniel Jones vs Jayden Daniels at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 59.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.
IND has the QB edge (+5); IND has the more efficient offense (+3); WAS missing 1 starter (+1)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | WAS win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 11:02 AM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | IND | -1.0 |
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | IND | -1.0 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | IND | -1.0 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | IND | -1.0 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | IND | -1.0 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | IND | -1.0 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | IND | -1.0 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | IND | -1.0 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | IND | -1.0 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 49% | 49% | +0.0 | IND | -1.0 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | IND | -2.4 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 42% | 42% | +0.0 | IND | -2.4 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 40% | 42% | -1.6 | IND | -2.8 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 40% | 42% | -1.6 | IND | -2.8 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 40% | 42% | -1.5 | IND | -2.8 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 40% | 42% | -1.5 | IND | -2.8 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 41% | 42% | -1.5 | IND | -2.7 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 40% | 42% | -1.5 | IND | -2.7 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 40% | 42% | -1.5 | IND | -2.7 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 40% | 42% | -1.6 | IND | -2.7 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 41% | 42% | -1.1 | IND | -2.6 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 41% | 42% | -1.1 | IND | -2.6 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 41% | 42% | -1.1 | IND | -2.6 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 39% | 42% | -3.2 | IND | -3.2 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 39% | 42% | -3.2 | IND | -3.2 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -1.1 | IND | -3.0 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 40% | 41% | -1.1 | IND | -3.0 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (WAS) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 32% (-4.5) | 36% (-3.5) | 27 |
| Kalshi | 34% | 36% | 27 |
| DraftKings | 40% (-3.5) | 40% (-3.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 36% (-4.5) | 37% (-3.5) | 25 |
| niftiNFL | 49% | 40% (-3.0) | 27 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Linebacker placed on IR with season-ending neck fracture suffered in Week 3 | WAS | Leo Chenal | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Austin Ekeler signed to active roster, adding veteran RB depth after injuries | WAS | 0.85 | +0.4 | pending | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Running back signed to active roster after pending physical; adds depth at RB position | WAS | Austin Ekeler | 0.85 | +0.4 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Safety ruled out for Week 4 | WAS | Nick Cross | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Guard ruled out for Week 4 | WAS | Sam Cosmi | 0.95 | -1.9 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') LB carted off on backboard with neck injury during Week 3 game vs Seahawks; status unclear for Week 4 | WAS | Leo Chenal | 0.70 | -1.4 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Kicker injured groin in pregame warmups Week 3; played through injury but status for Week 4 uncertain | IND | Spencer Shrader | 0.65 | +1.3 | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out QB traveling to London and expected to practice this week after elbow injury; playing prospects vs Colts uncertain but not ruled out | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 0.65 | +1.0 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other QB with dislocated left elbow opting against surgery until offseason; practicing this week in London but game status uncertain | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 0.75 | -0.4 | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Game played in London (international travel week); Jayden Daniels injury status uncertain for Week 4 despite traveling with team | WAS | 0.75 | -0.4 | pending | |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: confidence 0.00 below floor for qb_change Jayden Daniels dislocated left elbow in Week 2, ruled out for Week 3; Mariota starting vs. Seahawks (not vs. Colts) | WAS | Marcus Mariota | 0.00 | +0.0 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the Indianapolis Colts play the Washington Commanders?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 9:30 AM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at a neutral site.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders?
niftiNFL picks the Indianapolis Colts, 60% to win, with a projected score of Indianapolis Colts 24, Washington Commanders 22. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.