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Jets at Bears
CHI
the pick · 74% to win (model 77%, analyst -2.4)
19–27
projected · CHI by 8.1 · total 46.0
CHI −3.5
final market margin · agrees
Sun 1:00 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Chicago Bears
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Geno Smith vs Case Keenum at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 62.0°F, wind 5.0 mph, Sunny.
CHI is the better team (+10); CHI in better form (+7); CHI at home (+6)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | CHI win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | CHI | +5.1 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | CHI | +5.1 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | CHI | +5.1 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | CHI | +5.1 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | CHI | +5.1 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 66% | 66% | +0.0 | CHI | +5.1 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 63% | 66% | -3.2 | CHI | +4.2 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 63% | 66% | -3.2 | CHI | +4.2 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 63% | 66% | -3.2 | CHI | +4.2 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 62% | 66% | -3.2 | CHI | +4.5 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 63% | 66% | -3.0 | CHI | +4.6 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 63% | 66% | -2.6 | CHI | +4.7 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 63% | 66% | -2.4 | CHI | +4.7 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 64% | 66% | -2.4 | CHI | +4.8 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 64% | 66% | -2.4 | CHI | +4.8 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 67% | 69% | -2.4 | CHI | +5.9 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 74% | 77% | -2.4 | CHI | +8.1 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 74% | 77% | -2.4 | CHI | +8.1 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 74% | 77% | -2.4 | CHI | +8.1 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 74% | 77% | -2.4 | CHI | +8.1 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 74% | 77% | -2.4 | CHI | +8.1 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 74% | 77% | -2.4 | CHI | +8.1 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 74% | 77% | -2.4 | CHI | +8.1 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 74% | 77% | -2.4 | CHI | +8.1 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 74% | 77% | -2.4 | CHI | +8.1 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 74% | 77% | -2.4 | CHI | +8.1 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (CHI) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 63% (+3.5) | 62% (+3.5) | 26 |
| Kalshi | 64% | 62% | 26 |
| DraftKings | 60% (+3.5) | 60% (+3.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 60% (+3.0) | 61% (+3.5) | 24 |
| niftiNFL | 66% | 74% (+8.1) | 26 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed Caleb Williams ruled out 3-4 weeks with Grade 2 hamstring strain; Tyson Bagent (named starter for this game) started Week 3 vs Eagles, but Case Keenum reportedly started that game instead | CHI | 0.72 | -4.3 | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report Breece Hall ruled out with thigh injury suffered vs Lions | NYJ | Breece Hall | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Case Keenum will start at QB for Bears vs. Eagles (Caleb Williams out 3-4 weeks with Grade 2 hamstring strain); Tyson Bagent is backup | CHI | Case Keenum | 0.92 | -5.5 | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Caleb Williams recovering from hamstring injury; Bagent may start Sunday vs Jets instead of Case Keenum | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 0.65 | -3.9 | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Case Keenum named starter uncertain; Tyson Bagent may start vs Jets with Caleb Williams recovering from hamstring injury | CHI | 0.65 | -3.9 | pending | |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Week-to-week with quad injury suffered in Week 3 loss to Lions | NYJ | Breece Hall | 0.85 | +1.7 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Cornerback left Week 3 game with left leg injury, unable to return | CHI | Cam Lewis | 0.80 | -1.6 | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Safety has really good chance of returning to Jets lineup for Week 4 game vs Bears | NYJ | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 0.70 | -1.1 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the New York Jets play the Chicago Bears?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Chicago Bears' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win New York Jets at Chicago Bears?
niftiNFL picks the Chicago Bears, 74% to win, with a projected score of New York Jets 19, Chicago Bears 27. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.